My read on COT commercials is they are only modestly short crude oil (specs are long 61,879 of 1,079,960 open interest, nothing considering all the MoP talk about an "oil bubble", and "impending collapse of prices") and unleaded gas, actually flat nat gas (bullish), and are short the S&P and kind of neutral the NASDAQ. They are significantly long grains, especially corn. They look short the currencies, and gold in a relatively significant way.
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The one that really stands out is the rate of change from long to short in the interest rate futures. If I were to guess at a scenario I'd say a hot employment number on 9/3, causes a large bond sell-off, a temporary USD rally, very little if any relief though on most commodities, including energy, maybe a stiff sector sell off in rate sensitive XLF stuff. Oil prices staying elevated may contribute to it per the CI comments.
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The Daily Treasury Statement has been basically worthless at the jobs numbers they keep pulling out of their asses, but it's now a whopping 91,288 vs 84,463 yoy, that's a very large wage withholding gain, hard to ignore. I think it's wage inflation mostly, but some job count gain too. So I'm actually going to go long MNST (write naked puts)if it slips below 20 (let the positive from Barron's this weekend wear off some) before the report, to hedge this some, as it's a fairly modestly priced stock. Anyway one interprets these BTM numbers, it appears much more help wanted is migrating to the internet in the last several months:
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