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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: Henry J Costanzo who wrote (105212)	8/25/2004 1:38:59 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) of 209892

I was in a meeting this AM with a major retailer. Retailers are kind of getting antsy because their last two months sucked. Most are meeting their plans for the year, but they're concerned going forward. When you tell them the YOY comparisons are not fair due to the record mortgage re-fi's in 2Q and 3Q 2003 and the tax rebates, they note they factored in the tax rebate. However, when you tell them the average re-fi included a cash-out of about 10-grand, they look at you like you've just solved some quantum physics dillema. They all think it's about gas prices. Well, I believe it's more about incomes, debt, re-fi's, and tax rebates. Last year everyone knew about 20 people who re-financed their houses if they still lived in them. This year I can't think of a single individual I know who's re-financed. That's huge.

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