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To: t4texas who wrote (34674)	8/25/2004 10:40:21 PM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (2) of 206093

To be completely honest, I can't make heads or tails of some stats out of China. What do you make of this (today's WSJ pA2) "India's growth rate in oil consumption in the first quarter of this century will average 3.9% a year - second to China's 4.0% projected growth" "Autos account for only a small portion of China's oil demand, but the number of vehicles there is expected to rise to 120 million by 2020, from 20 million at the beginning of the decade. That is a CAGR of 9.37% I frankly do not understand how auto consumption can increase at 9.37% p.a. and oil at 4% Is auto mileage going up? Are these cars merely garage ornaments (my previous point) Will the cars run on ethanol or electricity?(Ha ha, right?) Will gasoline be so expensive per capita consumption will drop? (most likely?) Are nukes and other forms of energy able to offset that much oil? (do we buy that?) Will oil consumption in industrial processes drop? (I cannot see consumption of plastics dropping) I suppose the only excuse is that this is DOE data, but with this kind of data, how can one predict Chinese future oil consumption?

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