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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (18071)	8/26/2004 7:06:26 AM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (1) of 110194

I think it's obvious that oil companies and many of their investors don't believe in the new higher oil prices. I know ChevronTexaco execs, from CEO Dave O'Reilly on down, do not. One economic downturn can crater your entire spot price forecast. It's true that the oil industry does not have great credentials as clairvoyants. They all believed and drank the "oil is going to be gone soon" Koolaide in the late 1970s and early 1980s -- and got burned with massive investments that didn't pay-off when oil prices slid. § Perhaps "once burned, twice shy" is the current watch-word. § No one is more interested than I in how this turns out this time. But I recall all too well in 1980 Chevron's "25 year forecast for the price of oil" ended in 2005 at $185 per barrel. Even the recent high of $50 is $135 per barrel too low.

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