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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: russwinter who wrote (18093)8/26/2004 2:20:34 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
1)Checkmate is right.
However have you considered what happens if oil drops to 40, 37, 35, 33?
Slowly.
Not saying that is likely but checkmate is still on is it not?
I think so.

2)But what happens to the CPI if housing falls, and oil falls (or stabilizes up here for a while)?
I think this economy is already struggling with a lousy .5 hike. Look at europe. Flat as a pancake and no hikes at all. Housing is slowing in OZ and just starting to in the UK (most likely).

3)Consumers tapped out?
I think so and they will remain so without jobs.
Jobs coming back?
I think not, do you?

4) What happens to credit expansion and supply of money if housing sales drop?

OK except for perhaps oil and lets for the sake of argument say it stays in the 40-50 or 35-45 range for a while instead of dropping and tell me where you see the CPI headed with housing falling and consumer spending falling and housing falling.

I know what I see.
What do you see.

Mish
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