Olaf: You are almost correct. Daimler Benz is committed to making a serious effort at trying to get the Ballard design to succeed. And it may well do so. But DB recognizes that there is a considerable risk that, for a variety of technical and economic reasons, fuel cell cars may never get to the point where they can be offered in any quantity to the public. So, quite sensibly, it is taking a look at other possiblities.
The hybrid concept makes a lot of sense. Using a battery to get a car up to a speed that a gas engine can handle efficiently and cleanly, and then using the gas engine plus the energy generated by braking to recharge the batteries, is a very sensible solution. It does not require anywhere near the technological breakthroughs that vehicle fuel cells do to reach commercialization.
Most important, gas/ev hybrids will be sold commercially (in Japan) in a few months. The DB/Ballard fuel cell product is supposed to be available for sale around the year 2005, by which time gas/ev hybrids will have eight years of real life experience. By then the hybrid may be so advanced, and the flaws and difficulties of the first generation of commercial fuel cell powered vehicles might seem so troublesome that they never get introduced at all.
Obviously, it is all guesswork at this stage. But given that Ballard's market cap is something close to 20 times that of ERC's, and ERC has many other things going for it than just one technology with one wealthy patron, and ERC's stuff will be paying off five years sooner, and ERC has always been in the black so there has been no dilution, all those things make it clear to me which is the better buy. |
