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Non-Tech : Money Supply & The Federal Reserve

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To: Cush who started this subject8/28/2004 7:44:11 PM
From: Cush   of 1379
 
I will be posting the Fed Float numbers for one more week.

Last day will be September 3rd.

If anyone would like to volunteer to take over - please do.

I have been following the Fed Temporary Float for approximately a year and half.

My intention was to discover whether there was a tradeable pattern to how the Dow or Nasdaq moved in correlation with the Fed Float.

I don't see one.

This year -


<font color=blue>Fed Float over $ 25 billion</font> -
the Dow has been up 53% of the time
the Nasdaq has been up 52% of the time

<font color=red>Fed Float under $ 25 billion</font> -
the Dow has been down 49% of the time
the Nasdaq has been down 57% of the time

<font color=blue>Float Increased</font> -
the Dow was up 45% of the time
the Nasdaq was up 45% of the time

<font color=red>Float Decreased</font> -
the Dow was down 46% of the time
the Nasdaq was down 54% of the time

The failure to find a correlation doesn't mean the Fed isn't interfering in the markets. I believe they likely are.

But this method of trying to understand the Fed/Market relationship, and possibly trade profitably from that relationship, seems to be leading nowhere.

Good Trading everyone.

Cush
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