Who are the undecided?
They don't like NASCAR, are fans of dogs and DVDs, get their TV news from Fox, are pro-gun and pro-environment.
By Steven Thomma
Inquirer Washington Bureau
WASHINGTON - There are only about 2.6 million of them, but they could hold the future of the nation in their hands.
They are the undecideds, voters who haven't firmly made up their minds between George W. Bush and John Kerry. If this election is as close as expected, they are likely to decide it.
They are still open to either man, a new survey shows, but they have two main complaints: They don't like President Bush's war in Iraq, and they simply don't like Sen. Kerry.
Said Kurt Trachte, 47, a construction worker from St. Charles, Mo.: "I massively want Bush to lose, but I don't like Kerry."
Yet nearly nine out of 10 say they are certain to vote - although most plan to wait until the final days, if not hours, to decide.
In perhaps a bad omen for Bush, more of the undecideds voted for him in 2000 than for Democrat Al Gore, indicating that Bush has not persuaded them to stay with him after four years in office. Some 58.7 percent voted for Bush in 2000, while 24.7 percent voted for Al Gore.
That means Election 2004 may well go down to the wire and render an excruciatingly close decision, just as in 2000, that reflects a deeply divided country with a shrinking political center between two polarized political parties.
Those conclusions emerge from an unusually detailed mid-August look at persuadable voters - those undecided or those who are leaning one way or the other but are open to changing their minds - by the Zogby/Williams Identity Poll. The Inquirer Washington Bureau got exclusive access to the findings on the eve of the Republican National Convention.
Who are these people? How do they size up Bush and Kerry? What do they want in a president?
Unlike the "angry white male" of the 1994 election or the "soccer mom" of 1996, the persuadable voters of 2004 are all over the demographic map.
They are more likely to be men, 54.7 percent, than women, 45.3 percent.
They tend to be married: 60.2 percent.
They are largely white: 79.5 percent.
They are more likely to be Protestant, 45.3 percent, than Catholic, 24.2 percent. About 5 percent are Jewish and about 25 percent fall into the "other/none" category.
They worry about losing their jobs, though not as much as the broader electorate: 25.5 percent say they are worried, compared with 28.1 percent of all likely voters.
They don't like NASCAR; just 12.9 percent are fans.
They get their TV news from Fox, 40.4 percent, followed by CNN, 14.7 percent, and MSNBC, 13.3 percent.
They drive domestic cars over foreign by 57.9 percent to 36.9 percent.
They are split evenly between George Washington and Abraham Lincoln as to who was the greatest president.
They prefer dogs to cats by more than 2-1, DVD to VCR by better than 3-1, and McDonald's fries to Burger King's by 5-1.
Their musical tastes vary; 28.4 percent favor rock, 20.7 percent classical, and 17.4 percent jazz. Only 11.1 percent of the undecideds prefer country and 1.1 percent hip-hop.
The most undecided astrological signs: Libra, Virgo and Capricorn. The least: Pisces, Sagittarius and Aries.
Those most likely to be persuadable are between 30 and 49 years old; the least likely to be still up for grabs are those 65 and older.
They tend to be well-educated; 63.6 percent have at least a bachelor's degree.
The higher the income, the more likely to be undecided: 34.9 percent of persuadables make at least $75,000 a year, and 27 percent make between $50,000 and $75,000.
The closer to the city, the more likely to be undecided: 32.4 percent live in big cities, 24.8 percent in small cities, 22.2 percent in suburbs, and 20.6 percent in rural areas.
They live more in the East, 33.5 percent, and central Great Lakes region, 31.2 percent. They are scarce in the South, 16.9 percent, and the West, 18.4 percent.
They defy ideology: 46.1 percent call themselves moderate, 20.3 percent conservative, and 9.7 percent liberal or progressive. They reject party labels.
They are more antiabortion than abortion-rights advocates, 43.5 percent to 36.8 percent; more pro-gun than gun control, 49.8 percent to 32.4 percent; and they're split on same-sex marriage, with 19 percent favoring same-sex marriage, 35.8 percent favoring civil unions, and 38 percent favoring a ban.
"They occupy a middle ground between the two extremes," said pollster John Zogby, who conducted the survey with analyst Mark Williams.
"If we're talking about issues, then Kerry is the favorite. If we're talking about leadership or values or likability, then score one for Bush. But we don't get a clue from this which way the undecideds are really going to go."
Nationally, the poll found Kerry leads Bush by 50.8 percent to 46.7 percent among likely voters, with only 2.4 percent of the undecided so soft in their support of either candidate that they could easily change.
The survey probed at the persuadables' underlying values with cultural questions. For example, if the election were a choice between two characters from the movie The Wizard of Oz, 48.7 percent would vote for the Tin Man, described as "all brains and no heart," and 13.3 percent would vote for the Scarecrow, described as "all heart and no brains." That suggests a preference for Kerry, Zogby said.
Only 13.1 percent had seen Michael Moore's anti-Bush film, Fahrenheit 9/11. By comparison, 65.5 percent of Kerry supporters had seen it, but only 2.7 percent of Bush supporters had. "It didn't attract any undecideds, so score one for Bush," Zogby said.
But 27.4 percent had seen The Passion of the Christ, as had 43.4 percent of Bush supporters, versus only 15.5 percent of Kerry's.
The persuadables' answers offer Bush reasons for hope and for concern.
"They're clearly not happy with Bush's presidency," Zogby said. "But there are elements about them, particularly when it comes to traditional values and national defense, that gives Bush an opening with them."
The key reason for the unhappiness is the Iraq war; 46.6 percent list Iraq as Bush's biggest failure.
"I supported the war," said Allyson Dyar, 49, a computer installer in Portland, Ore., who voted for Bush in 2000 but now is undecided. "But then they didn't find any weapons of mass destruction... . The war right now is not setting well with me."
Another worry for Bush: 56.2 percent of undecideds believe the country is going in the wrong direction; only 18.7 percent think it's going right.
"He's doing a lousy job," said Trachte, the Missouri construction worker. "A lousy job on taxes, health care, jobs. And that thing in Iraq annoys me no end."
But Bush still has strengths with this group.
A slight 51.4 percent majority has a favorable opinion of him, while 47.7 percent are unfavorable. A solid 66.9 percent majority likes him as a person; only 14.8 percent don't. And 57.3 percent would rather have a beer with Bush than Kerry (though Bush doesn't drink alcohol).
Bush's record as commander-in-chief has earned their respect. Asked to name his most significant accomplishment, 45.7 percent cite his leadership after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks; 20.2 percent say the war in Iraq.
Another opening for Bush lies in values:
46.5 percent say Bush shares their values; only 11.8 percent say Kerry does.
72.3 percent say they identify with a private-sector philosophy; 10.3 percent identify with the government.
46.7 percent choose protecting the country at all costs, while 28.2 percent choose seeking international alliances and better understandings between cultures.
Kerry also has openings - and challenges. His most formidable obstacle is that a slight majority - 51.6 percent - says they don't like him, and 76.4 percent hold an unfavorable opinion of him. Only 9.3 percent would rather have a beer with him than Bush.
"I think he's a jerk," said Elizabeth Feldman, 22, a college student from North Olmsted, Ohio, a suburb of Cleveland. "He's way too fake... . I know it's popular to say John Kerry waffles, but it's kind of true. And I don't like his wife."
"He's intelligent, but he's too pompous," said Dolores Wisnewski, 56, a medical coder from Darien, Ill.
There are underlying sentiments, however, that could benefit Kerry:
55.2 percent want a president who keeps his religious values out of public business.
48.4 percent consider themselves pro-environment; 21.7 percent consider themselves pro-development.
Just 3 percent of persuadable voters said they would make up their minds after the Republican National Convention. An additional 31.8 percent will decide after the debates; 36.6 percent will decide during the last week of the campaign; and 13.5 percent expect to decide when they walk into the voting booth. |
