Zigler: How nice of you to ask. As a matter of fact, I posted a little summary of where ERC is now, on the minuscule ERC thread today. Here is the link:
techstocks.com
The fact that Ballard's fuel cell will work in terms of producing stationary power is completely trivial. Of course it will work. If it works in a van or bus when the vehicle is moving, why wouldn't it work when the vehicle isn't moving?
The issue is not, does it work, but can it produce power at a reasonable price. The chance of Ballard succeeding in this, I am sad to say, is about zero.
First, I will cite an authority that has some weight around this thread, Daimler Benz, which says in a recent publication of theirs "However, systems utilizing so-called PEM technology, which is presently being used to power experimental vehicles such as the NECAR II and the fuel cell bus, are not particularly suitable for use in the power engineering applications as they do not reach the efficiencies required"
Daimler is putting its money where its mouth is. It owns 10% of ERC, and has spent tens of millions on research developing ERC's technology as a licensee. It started up a 250 kW plant based on ERC's technology within the last week. Assuming this continues to behave as planned, this product will leave anything Ballard creates in the dust, in that it will be cheaper and vastly more efficient. ERC itself is working on larger plants for utility applications, but Daimler's is the same size as Ballard's, and so is Mitsubishi's design, also as an ERC licensee.
The reason why Ballard's product is almost certain to fail is cost. PEM cells require a highly pure stream of hydrogen to generate electricity. The cost of getting all the carbon monoxide out of the hydrogen is so high that even if the fuel cell part could be produced for a cost of zero, the total cost of reformer plus fuel cell is prohibitive. And the fact that PEM cells run cool means that, unlike the molten carbonate technology that ERC dominates, there is no possibility of cogeneration to boost efficiencies up to the 75%+ range that molten carbonate can do. So forget it. |
