St. Paul, Va. -- Polling firm Zogby International has found the 2004 presidential race between Democrat John F. Kerry and Republican George W. Bush a "dead heat" in a recent poll confounding political analysts in a state with a 40-year history of trending to Republicans in national elections.
Virginia is much like the nation "to close to call with The Zogby data showing President Bush ahead of Kerry by a narrow 49 percent to 48 percent margin and well within any margin of error.
A breakdown of the numbers shows Kerry leading among voters in large cities (53 percent to 44 percent), women (59 percent to 39 percent), singles (55 percent to 40 percent) and those who say the country is headed in the wrong direction (91 percent to 5 percent).
The president leads among men (61 percent to 36 percent), married voters (53 percent to 45 percent), voters in small cities (53 percent to 45 percent) and voters in suburban areas (52 percent to 44 percent).
Undecided voters now carry the key to Virginia's 13-electoral college votes in the less than 10-weeks to the November 2nd national presidential election. Some polls now have the undecided voter as high as 5 percent in Virginia.
"I will probably begin to decide after the first presidential debate," said one voter in St. Paul Friday evening indicating the importance being attached to the three presidential debates and one vice-presidential debate now scheduled to begin in late September and end in mid-October.
If Kerry can win 90% of the African-American vote in Virginia and hold his ground among other demographics, he will win the state. While Kerry would need to take almost all of the undecided's and the typically soft "other" vote in order to win the state, Bush's position here is anything but dominating. A swing of just two percent of the vote from Bush to Kerry would actually make Kerry the favorite in Virginia, according to one Virginia analyst.
Ralph Nader's bid to get on the Virginia ballot may impact the state with the potential of taking away just enough votes to give Bush a second Virginia victory in 4-years, according to some of the states Democratic Party organizers. Last week the State Board of Elections initially said Nader did not meet the petition requirements to gain access to the state's November 2nd ballot but intervention of the Bush Re-Election Chairman and Attorney General and Republican gubernatorial candidate Jerry Kilgore caused a turn about where the petitions are now being processed.
Nader could be a "spoiler" in Virginia for any chance for the Democrats to win the state's 13-electroal votes. But John Zogby noted that it was unclear who would be hurt more if Nader remained in the presidential race - the Republicans or Democrats.
"Half of Nader voters would not vote if he dropped out of the race," he said. "A quarter of them are people who would otherwise vote for Kerry. But interestingly, we're finding that a quarter are being taken from Bush."
Virginia is not the only state to confound analysts as North Carolina, Arizona and Colorado join Virginia in the "swing state" column. Zogby has now included the states in its battleground tracking polls until the end of the election.
With the Republican National Convention expected to provide Bush a polling bounce the next two-to-three weeks, the national campaign appears to be headed to yet another 'photo-finish.' Voters are polarized between the two candidates and Kerry is expected to focus on the economy in the closing weeks of the national election while Bush is expected to focus on the need to fight terrorism.
Both major party candidates will place a premium on outreach to the undecided voter like the man in St. Paul who will wait until after the first presidential debate to come to a conclusion on which to cast his vote.
Locally, both Democrats and Republicans are expected to wage an effort to reach voters and drive-up voter turnout. |
