Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking Message Board

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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking

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To: redfish who started this subject	8/30/2004 11:32:35 AM
From: redfish	Read Replies (1) of 26020

Storm2K Special Tropical Update - Hurricane Frances 9:30AM EDT Monday 8/30/2004 ...Updated with information for Bahamas in Questions section... CURRENT INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT Currently...Frances is moving to the west at a faster forward speed of 11 knots...or 12 MPH. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 miles per hour...making Fraces a dangerous category three hurricane. Although the core of the hurricane is still expected to pass to the north of the extreme North East Caribbean and Puerto Rico...residents of those islands should continue to monitor the progress of this dangerous hurricane until it has safely passed their location. After becomming less organized during the day yesterday...Frances appears to be intensifying based on the latest available satellite imagery this morning. The eye is better-located in the center of the central dense overcast...and overall outflow has improved as well. Category four intensity is possible later today. Further down the road...although changes in intensity are difficult to predict...overall intensity will fluctuate...but Frances could become a Category 5 hurricane sometime within the next few days. 5 DAY FORECAST MOTION After last night's synoptic mission by the NOAA Gulfstream aircraft...the global models have come into excellent agreement on track for the next 4 days. Even the NOGAPS model...once a signigicant outlier to the east...is now in line with the other global guidance in calling for a forward motion mostly to the west until 70W...then a WNW motion thereafter. Late in the forecast period...Frances is expected to bend more to the northwest...although there is some disagreement on the exact track the hurricane may take. The NOGAPS and GFS models bring the core of the hurricane very close to the Florida east coast and suggest a landfall further to the north. This scenario is currently favored by the NHC. The UKMET model is further to the west....and the 00Z European model once again presents a direct impact on south/central Florida. The Canadian model takes the storm into the Florida Keys. The spread in the guidance late in the period is a result of how these individual models handle features well upstream (west) of the hurricane as they rotate around the globe and potentially impact the hurricane. This turn is expected to take place very close to the Florida east coast and residents there should not let their guard down. The average foreacst error at 5 days is 325 nautical miles. EXTENDED MOTION Much depends on the exact track Frances takes...but at this time residents along the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Cape Hattaras should closely monitor the progress of this system. MISC QUESTIONS Q: What can we expect in the Bahamas? A: Unfortunately...the forecast path of Frances takes the core of the hurricane through most of the Bahama islands. If the NHC track verifies...category 3 or stronger effects can be expected through much of the Bahama chain...much like the Bahamas were affected during Hurricane Floyd. Based on the current track and intensify guidance available from TPC/NHC...hurricane watches will be required for the southern and central Bahamas tomorrow and possible warnings as early as Wednesday. Q: What should residents of Florida and the Bahamas be doing right now? A: Residents should take time over the next day to review their hurricane plans and bring them up to date. If residents do not have a plan...now would be a good time to make one. More preliminary steps can be found in this post: storm2k.org Q: I live in (ANY CITY) and our meteorologist thinks the system is coming here...what should I do? A: This far out...landfall points are guesswork. We have plenty of time to watch this system...you should go ahead and do everything you should have done at the beginning of the year...including getting your hurricane plan and supplies together. From there...no additional action is needed before a Hurricane Watch is issued for your area...unless there are things you should have already done still left to do. Q:When will this impact the US if it does at all?: A:It still appears this could be another 5 days from the US coast...however...we could see the system impact the US East Coast sooner if the forward motion is faster than officially forecast. We will update or replace this update around 4PM today. storm2k.org

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