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Politics : The Iraq War And Beyond

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To: Ed Huang who wrote (5747)8/31/2004 5:23:41 AM
From: GUSTAVE JAEGER  Read Replies (1) of 9018
 
ROFL.... TOLD YOU SO(*):

iht.com
Excerpt:

But Iraq's interim prime minister, Ayad Allawi, said bluntly that the kidnapping proved that France's position on Iraq, presumably its opposition to the war and the absence of a troop presence - offered it no protection from terrorism.

"Neutrality doesn't exist, as the kidnapping of the French journalists has shown," Allawi said in an interview with several European and American newspapers. "The French are deluding themselves if they think they can remain outside of this. Today, the extremists are targeting them too."

Suddenly, within France as well, there is the realization that its opposition to the American-led war in Iraq has not inoculated it from Iraqi-inspired terrorism.
[...]
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Now, isn't funny that the only discordant voice amidst the concert of sympathy towards the French comes from Iraq's quisling government?? I mean, even Lebanon's Hezbollah is urging Iraqi harkis to release their French hostages!

Anyway, all in all, that hostage crisis is a godsend for the French government since it gets France out of the bleachers and back in the field --as a player. I first thought the whole scam was yet another nasty blackmail pulled on the French by the US but then, on second thought, I said to myself, wait a minute... Of course, that whole Islamic Army outfit is bogus, probably a bunch of former Iraqi inmates turned "Islamic terrorists" and manipulated by US/Israeli handlers. Yet, the bigger picture must take into account the coming US election: whoever wins the presidential poll in November, France will have to mend fences with the next US administration --if only because her European partners will press for it. German Chancellor G. Schroeder is already a lame duck and his successor will likely distance the German position from the French one on Iraq...

Bottom line: there's a French-US rapprochement in the offing. Now the problem is, how to sell it to French opinion? Particularly French-Arab/Muslim opinion? Well, you first psych up the whole country with a classic "hostage crisis" (a fixture of French history: Lebanon, Algeria,...), next you link it to the headscarf issue, a hot-button issue that pitted conservative/rightwing French against the immigrant constituency. Granted, it's quite a ludicrous, far-fetched agenda for an alleged Iraqi insurgent outfit to bother about an arcane French law everybody --including the French-- have long forgotten... but who cares? The bigger the whopper, the better! Eventually, the plot panned out wonderfully: it allowed President Jacques Chirac to muster up the whole country into a union sacrée --just like in May 2002 when he summoned the French electorate to vote for him (Chirac was reelected with 80% of the vote!). Of course, there's a catch: after France's Arab/Muslim constituency has been neutralized and lulled into supporting the government, Prez Chirac will quietly realign his position on Iraq closer to the US's. Somehow, the headscarf issue is merely the "bait" part of Chirac's bait-and-switch tactics to sway France's immigrant constituency over to his shifting policy on Iraq....

Now, the timing of that hostage ploy looks awkward, to be sure. It would have made more sense to start it in November --but November is too late for Bush!! Although it might have suited Kerry to start the whole scheme later, Bush can't wait until he loses the election for the French to patch things up...

Gus

(*) Message 20463796
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