DTTFTY = interesting idea. The last time the Dow stewed in its own juices for so long was the 1970s, djindexes.com
That decade included two phenomenal oil price increases at a time when General Motors and the oil industry were king, with energy intensive industries such as steel and other industrial revolution behemoths, which gobbled huge amounts of oil, underpinning the economy.
Oil is an also-ran nowadays, with General Motors and Ford being little companies compared with QUALCOMM, let alone Microsoft.
I'd forgotten that it has already been over half a decade since the Dow reached 10,000 in early 1999. Wow, time flies when you're having fun, or even when you're not.
Uncle Al KBE is raising money prices [interest rates] now, but says he doesn't think the productivity boom will continue [mistakenly in my opinion as I think productivity will accelerate due to a technology trajectory out past the horizon still to be converted to commercial reality].
Therefore, I expect he'll take it easy on the interest rate increases and there will be a big boom based on continued low interest rates and productivity gains, but probably not big inflation because the productivity gains will cause suppliers to compete away the gains.
I hope he does a few more interest rate increases nevertheless, to give himself breathing room on interest rates and to keep the squeeze on the boom and return profits to the savers of the world.
I don't think we'll see Dow 10,000 in 2010. I guess more like, well, let's take a guess at about, um, well, how about 20,000.
The WAT will fizzle out. Islamic Jihad will be unable to do much other than the occasional bombing which will be no more debilitating than the traditional airliners falling out of the sky for many reasons, which never stopped the industry booming and people flying [some people won't fly, but nearly all will].
China won't start WWIII over Taiwan. North Korea won't want to be Iraqed. Of course North Korea wouldn't be a problem as the South is full of Koreans and being a single country wouldn't be a problem for Koreans of either north or south, just as East Germany and West Germany joined up without a big deal other than economic lumpiness.
All is looking good. Nothing can go wrong can go wrong can go wrong
Mqurice |
