The 1926 hurricane (a cat 3) was the coup de grace to the Florida land boom and speculation then.
This situation is literally God's Bowling Alley, and will depend on where it hits. If it were to actually track exactly like they have it projected (and as cat 4) this AM
intellicast.com
then it might come ashore at more lightly populated counties Martin (127,000), and St. Lucie (193,000), and miss a direct hit on Tampa, and stay out of the GOM. I suppose that would be a $10 billion damage hurricane, very disruptive, but not fatal to the Florida economy.
But if it comes ashore just 50 miles south, then you're talking Palm Beach (1,131,000), a hit on Tampa, and then into the GOM for potential second landfalls, and energy disruption. Even worse would be a hundred miles south of present track, and you get Broward (1,623,000), another possible hit on Tampa, and even more GOM trouble (New Orleans?). If it tracks 50 miles north you get Brevard (476,000) and then a 100 mph hit on Orlando, and then it just chews up northern Florida. Add in the fact that it could hit at 4-5 foot high tides, or slow down and just churn like an overflowing washing machine. Those scenarios are where you get the fatal $30-100 billion wipeouts. Just doesn't look like the markets are expecting that? I wonder why, odds aren't that great that it won't happen. |
