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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (11308)	9/2/2004 11:28:59 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) of 116555

Some fun on the FOOL Mish to Splotto: Splotto I am calling you out. Unless you buy a second home and another SUV (2 more if you do not yet have one) then you my friend are an "economic girlyman". Splotto to Mish: <splotto twirling in my new dress> "I feel so pretty...." Yes, I am indeed an economic girly man. I am sorry to disappoint so many of the supporters of my economic manhood. I am an economic girly man because.... I cannot ignore the record stimulus that has been applied resulting in a anemic 'recovery' I cannot ignore the record budget deficit that has allowed the government to apply such stimulus through excessive spending. I cannot ignore the structural shift in our economy that is making use a service economy (which will require an adjustment to our standard of living in order to get back to a real economy – bring on the deflation…please…we need it). I cannot ignore the record trade/current account deficit resulting from the economic shift mentioned above. I cannot ignore the record low FED rates we have NEEDED in the last 2 years simply to show GDP growth. The FED rate remains below real rates which will continue to engender inflation. I can't ignore the out-of-control printing presses and the unprecedented credit bubble we are in (and the part that fractional reserve banking plays in the bubbles ongoing life). I can't ignore the process where the FED and our government think it's their job to 'manage' the country's economy. It is clear that our intervention in the free market causes much more harm then good. Such a mindset is invariable tainted by the political goals of whatever administration is in power (both sides do it). I can't ignore a housing market that has been inflated from the credit bubble and low interest rates to an unsustainable point. This is the single worst element of the so-called 'manly economy' because this pain will be the most widely distributed pain. 25% unemployment? How does that compare to 80% home ownership? The sins of our government will be visited upon the masses on that level. I can't ignore how, since 1972 (or lets taking it back to 1933), the government has shown an inability to show any discipline and a need to make decisions based more on political ends then the good of the country. So yes, sadly, I am an economic girly-man. The government and the FED have slapped a pair of hot pants on me, some lipstick, a wig and some pumps on my feet and made me their cellblock economic girly-man. The bright side? At least I, and most on this board, know what's coming and will be prepared. The rest of the country will be caught with their hot pants down. Because whether they know it or not, they are going to be used like girly men too. Splotto

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