Q2 & H2 Handset Sell Through and Sell-In
Gartner Dataquest released their estimates for Q2 2004 handset sell-through today and they stated:
* The overall market grew 35% to 156.4 million units from a year earlier.
* Nokia took back market share in Q2 by selectively cutting prices and introducing new models and rebounded from its lowest share level since 1999.
* Nokia's market share reached 29.7%, up from 28.9% in Q1 but down from its 35.6% peak in Q2 2003.
* In Q2 2004 Nokia took business from Motorola, Samsung, and Siemens AG, which all lost ground from the first quarter of 2004.
The Q2 Winners
* Nokia up from 28.9% in Q1 to 29.7% in Q2. Unit sales were up 2.2 million from Q1
* Sony Ericsson grabbed 6.6% of the market, up from 5.6% in Q1 with "particularly strong" sales in Western Europe. "Sony Ericsson's success was surely at the expense of Motorola, Samsung and Nokia" (Wood). SE unit sales were up 1.8 million from Q1.
* LG won 6% of the global market in Q2, up from 5.3% in Q1. Unit sales up 1.3 million from Q2
The Q2 Losers:
* Motorola saw its second-quarter market share fall to 15.8% from 16.4% in the previous quarter. Although they had a "strong performance" in North America and Latin America, they lost market share in China and probably Europe. Unit shipments were down by 500,000 from Q1's record quarter.
* Samsung's market share slipped to 12.1% from 12.5% in Q1 and units fell by 200,000.
* Siemens lost the most ground in the quarter, falling to 6.9% market share from 8% in Q1 and 7% a year earlier and units were down 1.5 million from Q1. "Nokia's price cuts surely had an impact on Siemens." (Ben Wood of Gartner).
Gartner Dataquest on H1 2004 Handset Sell Through ¹
·
1Q 2004 2Q 2004 H1 2004
Unit Market ¦ Unit Est. ¦ Unit Est.
Company Sales Share ¦ Sales Share ¦ Sales Share
======= ======= ====== ¦ ====== ===== ¦ ====== =====
1 Nokia 44.2m 28.9% ¦ 46.4m 29.7% ¦ 90.6m 29.3%
2 Motorola 25.1m 16.4% ¦ 24.6m 15.8% ¦ 49.7m 16.1%
3 Samsung 19.1m 12.5% ¦ 18.9m 12.1% ¦ 38.0m 12.3%
4 Siemens 12.3m 8.0% ¦ 10.8m 6.9% ¦ 23.1m 7.5%
4 SEricsson 8.5m 5.6% ¦ 10.3m 6.6% ¦ 18.8m 6.1%
6 LG 8.1m 5.3% ¦ 9.4m 6.0% ¦ 17.5m 5.7%
Others 35.7m 23.3% ¦ 35.9m 22.9% ¦ 71.6m 23.0%
Total 153.0 100.0 | 156.4m 100.0% | 309.4m 100.0%
·
¹ This table includes iDEN and mobile WLL shipments, but excludes
ODM to OEM shipments.
·
Strategy Analytics 2004 (Q1 and Q2) Handset Shipments and Share
·
Company Q1 2004 Q1 2004¦ Q2 2004 Q2 2004 ¦ H1 2004 H1 2004
Sales Share ¦ Sales Share ¦ Sales Share
¦ ¦
Nokia ² 44.7m 29.2% ¦ 45.4m 28.9% ¦ 90.1m 29.1%
Motorola 25.3m 16.5% ¦ 24.1m 15.4% ¦ 49.4m 15.9%
Samsung 20.1m 13.1% ¦ 22.7m 14.5% ¦ 42.8m 13.8%
Siemens 12.8m 8.4% ¦ 10.4m 6.6% ¦ 23.2m 7.5%
SEricsson 8.8m 5.7% ¦ 10.4m 6.6% ¦ 19.2m 6.2%
LG 8.75m 5.7% ¦ 9.9m 6.3% ¦ 18.65m 6.1%
Others 29.05m 19.5% ¦ 34.0m 21.6% ¦ 63.05m 20.4%
====== ====== ¦ ====== ====== ¦ ====== ======
Total 153.0m 100.0% ¦ 156.9m 100% ¦ 309.9m 100.0%
·
Nokia Composite Sales of Mobile Devices Combining 3 Divisions
·
Nokia Operating Operating
Sales ²,³ Profit Margin
========== ============= =========
Mobile Phones EUR 4.167 Bil. EUR .797 Bil. 19.1%.
Multimedia .739 Bil. (.74 Bil.) -10.0%
Enterprise .189 Bil. (.59 Bil.) -31.2%
-------------- --------------- ----------
Total EUR 5.095 Bil. EUR .664 Bil. 13.0%
USD 6.157 Bil. USD .802 Bil. 13.0%
·
³ Conversion at 6/30/2004 rate (1 EURO = 1.20850 US Dollar)
·
Nokia total mobile devices = 45.4m and ASP = EUR 113 or $136.89 USD
Market Expansion
* Demand growth has prompted Gartner to say global mobile phone sales this year might reach 650 million units if "current momentum is maintained." Gartner has previously said more than 600 million units would be sold, increasing from 520 million cellular phones in 2003.
"I've heard companies mention up to 700 million units this year, but I think that is a bit overambitious." (Ben Wood, Gartner Dataquest).
* Following 312M units in H1 2004, Strategy Analytics upgraded its global sell-in forecast to a record 670 million units for the full year
* Kaupthing Bank and its veteran analysts in May forecast 653 million units for 2004.
* On the conservative side Dr. Richard Windsor of Nomura says he is sticking with a forecast of 602 million units and states: "There are some worrying signs. There are some rumblings from Asia that things are slowing down a bit, so I am not in the 'all excited' camp."
* 'Always Low' Brian Modoff of Deutsche Bank USA recently went back to the drawing board and upped his 2004 handset forecast from 542 million (June 21) to 609 million units. Brian still thinks 473 million units were shipped last year while consensus is in the 516 million to 520 million range.
Gartner links:
quote.bloomberg.com
itweb.co.za
Best to all,
- Eric - |
