Cramer says market going down.
Where's the Rally? We Already Had It
By James J. Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
9/3/2004 2:07 PM EDT
URL: thestreet.com
Where's the rally? That's what everyone's hitting me with. President Bush gives a coronation speech and we don't have a rally? Is Bush like a stock, and because BUSH didn't go up, as measured by the Dow or the S&P 500 or, shudder, the Nazz, he has nowhere to go but down?
Hardly. In fact, I tell you that as bad as the market's become at digesting corporate earnings, it is even worse when it comes to politics.
To put it another way: The market this time was more like its old self; it rallied in advance of the moment.
We are now, beginning today, out of the benign period that coincided with the president's coronation. We are back into the rough-and-tumble, tell-me-how-the-fundies-are period, and unless there are a lot of short-sellers in an area -- retail -- you are getting a real dose of reality today. If anything, I would expect the market to be down even more, given that about two-thirds of Thursday's climb was directly related to bogus bin Laden stories and the remaining third to a vision that had payrolls up even more. When you factor in the Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) disaster, it gets even more obvious.
I know I am one of the few people, right now, who genuinely doesn't like the market. But I am not a bear: I like financials, foods and beverages, non-pharma health care, cables and telecom equipment, which is a lot more than most.
But I know when things are about to get tougher. The Bush people may not care to know that things aren't so hot out there, but the businesspeople know it, and even in a world where Reg FD rules, it will be more well-known in 10 days than it is now.
Things are so nutty at this moment that if you told me that everyone knew that I was going to cut KLA-Tencor (KLAC:Nasdaq) numbers on Tuesday if I were a semi-cap analyst, right now I would tell you to get long ahead of the call because the shorts will panic and cover.
That might not be the case, though, when the A teams return to the turrets next week.
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At the time of publication, Cramer was long Intel.
Nasdaq is at 1845. Let see what it is at end of September. I would suspect the normal trend of a weak September may not hold. So he was long Intel. I really never see Cramer mention cutting losses much. And the BERQY babble has disappeared from his BUY lips. |
