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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: mishedlo who wrote (11401)9/3/2004 4:44:17 PM
From: GraceZ  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
Other than politics, is there any justification for it?


Accuracy is the primary goal as hard as that is to believe. If it wasn't used this would mean that only jobs created by existing businesses would be counted and we know from history that would be grossly inaccurate. Consider that under-counting has a political outcome as much as over-counting. How is it possible to decide which is more politically motivated, using the model or not using it? You may assume that government stats are all manipulated by the party in power but if you lived in a state that has as many government workers as I do, you'd realize right away that most government workers have little interest in making the current President look good.

Because there is only a short lag in time between when the jobs are added in the B/D model and when those new jobs can be counted using IRS data, this makes it fairly easy to look back and see if the model is accurate over time and adjust it. The model is tweaked to be more accurate.

What it comes down to is, do you trust statistical sampling as a science? Most people, when asked, would say they don't trust it primarily because they lack a scientific education and they have no idea just how much they touch every day is only there because of the highly developed methodology behind statistical sampling. Good thing they don't have to know how it works to benefit from it.
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