Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking Message Board

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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking

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To: Tech Master who wrote (310)	9/5/2004 11:10:03 AM
From: redfish	Read Replies (3) of 26026

Looks like the panhandle might get it pretty bad. Hurricane Frances Forecast/Advisory Number 47 Statement as of 15:00Z on September 05, 2004 at 11 am EDT...1500z...a Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida from the mouth of the Suwannee River to Destin. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the East Coast of Florida from north of Deerfield Beach northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Peninsula...on the West Coast...from the Suwannee River southward around the peninsula to Deerfield Beach...and for all of the Florida Keys...including Florida Bay and the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect from north of Flagler Beach to Altamaha Sound. At 11 am EDT...1500z...all warnings for the Bahamas have been discontinued. At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Hurricane Watch from north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach has been discontinued. Hurricane center located near 27.7n 81.2w at 05/1500z position accurate within 20 nm present movement toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 8 kt estimated minimum central pressure 975 mb eye diameter 30 nm Max sustained winds 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. 64 kt....... 60ne 30se 30sw 30nw. 50 kt....... 80ne 80se 40sw 40nw. 34 kt.......175ne 150se 100sw 120nw. 12 ft seas..350ne 350se 200sw 300nw. Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant. Repeat...center located near 27.7n 81.2w at 05/1500z at 05/1200z center was located near 27.5n 80.8w forecast valid 06/0000z 28.2n 82.3w...inland Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt. 50 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw. 34 kt...125ne 125se 125sw 125nw. Forecast valid 06/1200z 29.0n 83.9w...over water Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt. 64 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw. 50 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw. 34 kt...125ne 125se 125sw 125nw. Forecast valid 07/0000z 30.3n 85.2w...moving inland Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt. 34 kt... 50ne 125se 125sw 50nw. Forecast valid 07/1200z 32.0n 86.0w...inland Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt. Forecast valid 08/1200z 35.0n 85.5w...inland Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt. Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day outlook valid 09/1200z 38.5n 82.5w...inland Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt. Outlook valid 10/1200z 42.0n 79.0w...inland Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt. Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 27.7n 81.2w next advisory at 05/2100z forecaster Avila Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 47 Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 05, 2004 radar data and surface observations indicate that the large center of circulation of Frances continues to move slowly across the central Florida Peninsula. The tropical storm force winds extend far away from the center in practically all quadrants. In fact... Grand Bahama is still reporting sustained winds of tropical storm force...and winds have reached 40 to 45 knots in feeder bands over the Florida Keys. The center of Frances is expected to continue to move between the west and west-northwest across the peninsula and then emerge over the Gulf of Mexico in about 12 to 18 hours. Initial intensity remains at 80 knots. The hurricane is expected to weaken to tropical storm intensity as it moves over land...but it could then regain hurricane status once over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Because Frances has a large wind field and is expected to be very near the Florida Panhandle in about 24 to 36 hours...a Hurricane Warning has been issued for a portion of the Florida Gulf of Mexico coast. Forecaster Avila

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