Bush Up Five Points in Three Weeks
Full Week Tracking Update
Sept 2 Bush + 2.8
August 26 Bush + 0.3
August 19 Kerry + 1.2
August 12 Kerry + 2.8
August 5 Kerry + 1.9
RasmussenReports.com
September 5, 2004--President Bush gained more than five percentage points over John Kerry during the past three weeks. About half the gains were made before the Republican National Convention and half during Convention week.
While challengers typically earn a bigger Convention Bounce than incumbents, Kerry managed only a two-point bounce from both the announcement of his running mate and the Democratic Convention.
Three weeks ago, at his post-Convention peak, Kerry was ahead by nearly three percentage points in our weekly tracking update. This week, Bush is ahead by nearly three points. The race for the White House, while still very close, is now the President's to lose.
During the Republican Convention week, the President's numbers improved across the board. He took the lead in the 16-Battleground States, his Job Approval ratings went up to their highest levels in six months, and the number saying the country is moving in the right direction increased to its highest level of the year. Ratings for the President's handling of the situation in Iraq and the economy also reached new peaks during the past week.
Additionally, initial reaction to the most recent job creation report shows a slight increase in the economic confidence of Investors and Consumers.
Obviously, there is still plenty of time left in Election 2004 and the race is still close. Both candidates still have a realistic chance of winning. The situation in Iraq and around the globe remains volatile, there are more economic reports to be issued at home, and the Bush-Kerry debates are yet to be held. Any or all of those things could work to the benefit of one candidate or the other.
However, the dynamics of the race have changed. A few weeks ago, the status quo would have led to a Kerry victory. Now, the status quo will benefit the President. Senator Kerry must either hope for a serious Bush mistake or do something on his own to shake up the race.
One final note. We have discussed the recent bounce in terms of our full weekly polling update rather than daily tracking numbers because they give a bigger picture look at the campaign. Our weekly sample of 3,500 interviews conducted over 7 days eliminates much of the statistical noise associated with smaller samples and other factors.
The Republican National Convention focused heavily on America's role in the world. An earlier Rasmussen Reports survey found that just 21% view the United Nations as our ally while 16% believe the UN is an enemy of the U.S. Assessments of France are even bleaker. |
