Ken:
You State:
> The only troublesome issue to me (long on SUNW) is the paragraph
> that reads, "Apple's change of allegiance is only one of McNealy's
> problems. Eager to make Microsoft a follower in Sun's Java parade,
> McNealy offered Microsoft a Java license. But Gates proved the
> better negotiator: Under the contract, Microsoft has the right to
> "improve" upon Java in any way it wishes. McNealy threatened to
> revoke the Java license if Microsoft makes changes to Java that
> render it incompatible with Sun's version. Micrsoft appears to have
> the upper hand here."
One thing that most people keep forgetting is the fact that Sun Microsystems is first a hardware company and then a software company. Its software side of business (i.e. SunSoft) is a subsidiary whose prime purpose for existance is to advocate means via which Sun can sell more hardware. Java has been, and will always be the prime reason for Sun to enjoy huge revenue growth from its hardware business (namely servers, and soon to be NCs, and perhaps even specialized chips to be used for home appliances, among workstations, etc.). Therefore, in my opinion I think it would make absolutely sense why for Mr. McNealy to allow Microsoft have its way in the contract!
The clause you are referring to (i.e. that Microsoft under the contract has the right to improve upon Java) was put in there as a bait by Sun to have Microsoft adopt the Java technology. It would make absolute sense for Sun to have Microsoft adopt the Java open technology (which was invented for advocation of a server centric computing model). By having the largest software vendor on the planet earth to adopt Java as its primary business focus Sun could not have asked for anything more. And sure, Microsoft can make noise by saying that they will improve (i.e. extend) the Java VM, in the final analysis Sun really does not care at all, since its primary goal of advocating a server centric computing model has been achieved by having the largest desktop software vendor endorsing it!! It is similar to Bob Dole endorsing President Clinton the day before the election (in the last presidential election)!!
In the final analysis (again I feel we will simply be repeating ourselves since we have discussed the issues so many times before), if Microsoft decides to deviate from Sun's version of Java VM, they will simply be nailing their own coffin! In either case Sun does not really care what Microsoft does: 1. Because in the new server centric, thin client computing model desktop is no longer the computing world but rather it is simply a fraction of it, any major deviation done by Microsoft to Sun's definition of Java will be rejected and laughed at by the industry. 2. Sun's main goal is to sell servers and NCs, therefore all the noise and complaints regarding Microsoft changing the Java VM, etc. is simply to give Microsoft a hard time and to make them look bad to the computing world (i.e. it is more a political issue than a technical matter).
So nothing to worry, in my humble opinion of course, as in fact lets sit back and get a good laugh at what Microsoft wished it could do to Java. Whether they like it or not, as it stands, Microsoft as a software tool/technology supplier has become nothing more than a subsidiary of Sun Microsystems (and I hope we dont get into this since again we simply be repeating ourselves as the reasons for this have been discussed in length before). In my humble opinion of course, all those paying $130+ for MSFT shares are going to be in a horrible shock coming this December as Microsoft's profit margins, and the rate of its revenue growth and earnings are going to be diminished big time, thanks to Java! However I believe they have already started a major shift in their underlying business model to become the world's largest manipulator/monopolozer of media and telecommunications (the highways on which the new thin client, server centric computing model will travel on). I am not so sure if this will be a smooth transition. However any dip under $100 and I for one will be a huge buyer of MSFT shares as I believe they will eventually be very successful in the shift of their business model.
Regards,
Addi Jamshidi |
