Instapundit - IT'S A SEVEN-POINT LEAD FOR BUSH according to the Gallup poll. Mickey Kaus has more on why people think that's more reliable than the Time and Newsweek polls mentioned earlier. Who's right? Beats me.
Bush leads Kerry by 7 points
By Susan Page, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — President Bush widened his lead over John Kerry after a combative Republican National Convention deepened questions about the Democratic candidate's leadership, especially on terrorism. (Related link: Poll results)
As the campaign enters its last eight weeks, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday shows Bush at 52%, Kerry at 45% and independent candidate Ralph Nader at 1% among likely voters. Before the convention, Bush led Kerry by 2 percentage points.
Among registered voters, Bush was at 48%, Kerry at 46% and Nader at 4%.
Bush's lead remains within the survey's error margin. By historical standards, the race remains too close to call.
But the New York convention has reshaped views of the political landscape and the candidates in ways helpful to the GOP. Views of whether Bush has the personality and leadership qualities to be president improved by 6 points; those of Kerry declined by 14 points.
And the importance of terrorism — the major issue on which Bush has an advantage — surged. Voters now say terrorism is as important as the economy, and more important than the war in Iraq, in determining their vote. The president is preferred by 27 points over his challenger in handling terrorism, up from a 10-point edge last month. By 2-to-1, those surveyed say the chances of a terrorist attack against the USA would be less if Bush rather than Kerry were elected.
Bush strategist Matthew Dowd predicts the race will tighten again but says Bush is further ahead than the campaign expected. With the Democratic convention over, "John Kerry has lost any ability to have any one-way conversation" with voters, he says.
Mark Mellman, Kerry's pollster, says Kerry is "making progress every single day" in closing the gap with Bush. "The reality is that this was a convention filled with ugly and inaccurate speeches, and no doubt as those speeches are being heard they make some impression," he says. "Equally there's no doubt they'll fade pretty quickly."
The lessons of presidential races since World War II indicate either candidate could prevail in November.
Since World War II, three contests have been within the margin of error among registered voters at Labor Day. In those races, the leading candidate won in 1980; the trailing candidate won in 1960 and 2000.
Still, Bush received a modest bounce from his party's convention, while Kerry's standing sagged in the USA TODAY poll after the Democratic convention. The president is driving both sides of the ballot: eight of 10 of his supporters say they are voting for Bush; half of Kerry voters say they are voting against Bush.
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