Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking Message Board

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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking

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To: redfish who started this subject	9/6/2004 11:15:22 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (1) of 26025

Ivan's tracking furher South into the GOM. nhc.noaa.gov Maybe Florida will be spared! nhc.noaa.gov RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PROVIDED A FIX TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. IVAN IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE SOON...AS UNIVERSALLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE. DUE IN PART TO A MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION...THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THERE IS A DIFFERENCE OF OPINION IN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. THE GFS...UKMET...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE BRING IVAN WELL SOUTH OF CUBA TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENNINSULA. NOGAPS AND THE GFDL BRING IVAN MUCH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS LINE WITH THE CLOSELY PACKED MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS.

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