The Beginning of the End?
Polipundit
In his latest Rollcall column, Stuart Rothenberg makes a really great point:
"If he fails to do so (define the race's agenda), Democrats will form a circular firing squad and begin shooting at each other. If that happens, it will mark the beginning of the end of the Kerry campaign. "
I believe that if the President can continue to shape the debate for the fall campaign for another two weeks, the wheels will fall off the Kerry campaign. The reason has to do with the personality of John Kerry.
Do you remember the panic among Republican backers of George W. Bush after he lost the New Hampshire primary? His campaign staff was said to be incompetent and inexperienced. Governor Bush ignored the critics and continued to rely on Karen Hughes and Karl Rove. He overwhelmed the McCain candidacy within a month. Then came the Democratic convention and the emergence of what appeared to be a Gore juggernaut. The Bush campaign seemed unable to catch a break - it went from gaffe to gaffe to gaffe. Concerned Republican operatives suggested that Bush needed to shake himself free of his Texas campaign staff and hire someone nationally tested like Haley Barbour to run his campaign. Once again George W. Bush ignored the critics, kept Rove/Hughes, and went on to recover and win the Presidency. George W. Bush is a man who is extremely sure of himself and those who surround him. He knows their talents, their flaws, and believes that his battle-tested veterans will not let him down. (President Bush would make a great general.)
On the other hand, John Kerry is a man who needs to be loved. He cannot take criticism, and he insists that any mistake, from falling off a ski, to a campaign mishap, is not a result of any personal flaw. His campaign staff quickly becomes demoralized. You may remember how this nearly destroyed him last year and probably would have ended his political career if Howard Dean had more brains than mouth. So if the Kerry campaign starts to falter, you can expect Kerry to blame his staff and probably remove them. While you can do this when you are running seventh in a primary field, it is a recipe for disaster in the midst of a national presidential campaign.
In short, I believe that the President needs to provoke Kerry to shake-up his campaign staff...he needs to keep Kerry on the defensive for at least two weeks and cause a media/DNC induced implosion. By then, it will be too late for Kerry to recover. You cannot prepare for debates, re-shuffle your campaign staff, and campaign around the country at the same time. |
