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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (53141)9/9/2004 3:17:14 AM
From: energyplay  Read Replies (4) of 74559
 
Natural gas will see some gas on gas competition in late September or October. East Coast storage will be full, but west coast won't be. After that things get better-
Nymex NG
Oct 4.60
Nov 5.60
Dec 6.20

I expect some of the October pricing to roll into November, bringing it down. For 2005, pricing should be good unless we have a very warm winter. The heating oil prices of $1.17 will support $6 to $7 NG. Venezuela is a big source of heating oil.

There's divergence in CanRoy prices (up to flat) and NG prices (DOWN) I believe the reason is more and more people are discovering Royalty Trusts, and those that have bought tehm are buying more. There's a big Bush / Kerry factor here - most of the dividend is tax advantaged, so when Bush looks better in the polls, it supports dividend stocks.

I still want to buy a little more - my worry is there will be a big article in WSJ and they'll jump 30% and not look back.

A number of the trusts have hedged some production, so dividends may not fall down as hard as NG prices.

I would not be surprised if we get a sharp spike down in CanRoy prices, but I think it's more likely they won't drop at all...

I want to hold them for over a year, especially in taxable accounts. Longer term, Canada has shut nukes and some coal plants, US nukes have run flat out and will need maintence/re-fuelling, there's not enough water in Western resouivars for hydropower.

California set a new record today for power consumption...
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