<<The idea is to plan for the worst and hope for the best.>>
Got it. Which means that weather services by planning for the worst, hope for the best, i.e,. more money for them!!!
Typical of any science. Just tell how dangerous it could be, catch the imagination of the crowds and rake in the cash.
See here how typical: <<Hurricane Charley's sudden increase in intensity and unexpected path illustrates how difficult it remains for scientists to predict the massive storms and precisely forecast their often inscrutable behavior, experts said Saturday.
...
The National Hurricane Center's Pasch acknowledged techniques need to improve.
"We still have to get better - 90 percent isn't good enough. We have to get to 95 or 98 percent accuracy," he said>>
Those guys are good. Those guys are very good!
<<The computer models indicate various possible paths, some of which include Florida>>
It MUST include FLA. Otherwise no one would give a shit if it was hitting elsewhere and more funding for weather research and forecast wouldn't roll in.
<<Yes>> well removing a couple of million people form their homes must sell something.
<<and no. The damage to the Florida citrus industry will probably increase the price of Brazilian orange juice.>>
Which means that for every tone of orange juice that doesn't come to the market due to the hurricanes, save the US tax payer USD700, which is the subsidy the US government doles out to the FLA orange growers.
There's a glut of frozen orange juice. Prices shouldn't go up. But the traders are using the hurricanes visibility to jack up prices. Hey!, they are saying, if the guys can put a USD15 on a barrel of oil on risk, why should we not use similar trick and make a little money!
<<OK, I guess we don't need the U.S. Weather Service anymore! <g>>>
Not exactly, tax payers have to pay for accuracy. If they increase accuracy they get more funding, if the accuracy goes down, they have their budget cut.
The reason is very simple. They are using tricks to get more tax-payers' money. By raising pseudo-scientific claims, the insurance industry fund more and more research because they get scared shitless of the possibly outcomes. Guess who is talking about global warming and other non-sense? Yes, weather forecasters. How they scare the shit of the insurance industry? They say that they need more funding, to discover if global warming and other non-sense will change, patterns, strength and paths of hurricanes. |
