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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: cnyndwllr who wrote (145196)	9/9/2004 1:14:43 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) of 281500

There cant be a united iraq without the sunni center of the country. So if the Falujans et al continue to resist, a two state solution + the basket case triangle is in the offing. Our analysts should be trying to make educated guesses on how this will work in terms of our interests. I dont think that it has to be a disaster at all and may be the best achievable solution if pacification of the sunni areas fails. Shiaa will get sistani and a possible al sadr sidekick role or insurgency. Iran and the US will have influence there. Kurds can certainly survive on their own and they need to reach a lt accomodation with the turks. We could help mediate that one. Sunni triangle becomes Lebanon but then who becomes syria? Where is Bagdad--is it part of shiaa state. What about the parts of the kurd homeland that are not currently within the kurd boundaries? Seems to me both get picked off by shiaa and kurds respectively. Of course such humiliation of the sunnis will provide bin laden with more recruits unless we can figure out a way to resolve the triangle prior to any split or later. Just some general ideas from me but experts need to be digging now, because that is what we may get. mike

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