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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking

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To: Patricia Trinchero who wrote (521)	9/9/2004 10:54:08 PM
From: redfish	Read Replies (1) of 26061

In college I used to fish out of Cedar Key in a canoe with a trolling motor hooked to it. A much smaller hurricane hit it back then and destroyed the town. WTNT34 KNHC 100232 BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST THU SEP 09 2004 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD JAMAICA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO PERDENALES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PALENQUE WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FRIDAY MORNING. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES... 465 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING JAMAICA ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY 5 STATUS AS IT APPROACHES JAMAICA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 923 MB...27.26 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...15.5 N... 73.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. IN THE UNITED STATES...HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS ARE BEING ISSUED BY THE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN KEY WEST REGARDING EVACUATIONS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ WWWW WTNT44 KNHC 100232 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 09 2004 THE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF IVAN WAS STILL 923 MB...BUT THAT THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAD DECREASED TO NEAR 130 KT. BASED MAINLY ON THE PRESSURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS A POSSIBLY GENEROUS 130 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE OUTER WIND MAXIMA MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS CONTRACTING...AND THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT IVAN MAY BE COMPLETING THE CURRENT CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE. HOWEVER...THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATES ANOTHER WIND MAXIMA FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...WHICH MAY BE THE PRECURSOR OF THE NEXT CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/11. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST 36-48 HR OF THE FORECAST TRACK...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF IVAN SHOULD STEER IT GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES BEYOND THAT TIME AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC CURRENTLY NEAR 31N52W. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...WITH DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR EAST THAT TURN WILL OCCUR. THE GFS WEAKENS THE RIDGE THE MOST AND BRINGS IVAN NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS KEEP MORE RIDGING NORTH OF IVAN AND THUS KEEP A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE NOGAPS AND GFS HAVE BOTH SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...WHILE THE GFDL HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE ON THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AFTER 72 HR TO BRING IT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. THE BIGGEST CONTROLLING FACTOR THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HR IS LIKELY TO BE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT IVAN WILL COMPLETE THE CURRENT CYCLE BEFORE IT REACHES JAMAICA AND THUS INTENSIFY BEFORE HITTING THE ISLAND. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY OVER THE WARM WATER BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA IF THE STORM STRUCTURE REMAINS GOOD. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND SHIPS ALL FORECAST SIGNIFICANT SHEAR TO DEVELOP ACROSS IVAN STARTING IN ABOUT 48 HR...WHICH COULD SLOW OR STOP DEVELOPMENT IN SPITE OF THE WARM WATER. GIVEN THE CURRENT IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN...48 HR MIGHT BE TOO SOON. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF SIGNIFICANT SHEAR UNTIL 72 HR AND HOLDS THE INTENSITY UP ACCORDINGLY. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 15.5N 73.3W 130 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 16.5N 74.8W 130 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 17.7N 76.6W 135 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 18.9N 78.3W 130 KT 48HR VT 12/0000Z 19.9N 79.6W 140 KT 72HR VT 13/0000Z 22.0N 81.5W 140 KT 96HR VT 14/0000Z 25.5N 82.5W 120 KT 120HR VT 15/0000Z 29.5N 83.0W 95 KT...INLAND

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