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To: Montana Wildhack who wrote (18)	9/10/2004 3:25:18 PM
From: Montana Wildhack	Read Replies (1) of 20

Excerpt from SH post for reference Sept 9-10/04 I'm saying Sept04 comes in between 1.5 and 2.1 million and that this quarter will likely tend towards the bottom of that range. I would estimate 1.6 I've been doing this for some time which is estimating a sales growth range for coming quarters. The interest isn't so much getting the next quarter right - it's the curve I care most about. Nevertheless, I don't expect the upcoming year to fall outside these ranges: Dec04 - 2.3 - 3.5 Mar05 - 3.2 - 5.2 Jun05 - 4.5 - 7.3 Sep05 - 6.0 - 10.4 I also expect SMY to move during the year from the lower end to the higher end of the ranges as the quarters progress. I would also add that my estimate of a downside suprise is that it's negligable. So my estimate of sales in the Sep05 quarter is between 24-40 million on an annualized basis. Not that far away. Using a 15% market share marker this would estimate the SCM reader market in that quarter between 160-250 million annualized. That's not how I arrive at those numbers; but, it's one way of vetting them. My own opinion is that the market will be more in the 120-190 range in that quarter and that SAMSys will have closer to a 20% share averaged over the 4 quarters. Somewhere beginning I think around the end of those periods and the entire year 2006, I think the SCM market while take off in a non-linear fashion. Most likely in 2006 somewhere. This is modified from previously on the basis that I now estimate that the SCM market will grow steadily in something around a 50% per quarter rate averaged for at least most of a year and likely more a year and a half. Somewhere near the end of that I expect a critical mass will blow the SCM market outwards on an exponential basis with higher growth rates thereafter for several years. This covers what I consider the reader and consulting markets. That is VAR activity included. What is not included specifically are 1) the modules and 2) the tag design work with BTG. The modules I suspect will grow in design types targeted at vertical markets. I believe this because it is my opinion that SAMSys has identified a sub-component capability beyond supplying those modules for the SCM market printers/labellers. I do think these modules can be big; but, somewhat less so from an absolute dollar perspective on the gross margin line. The tag work with BTG was posted here very recently in a quote from the BTG annual report and I think that paragraph said everything. As Jeepman posted some time ago this is an area that needs to be watched and I think he's right. What the revenue implications are I can't size so I've left it out - however, from what I can see these are serious RFID tag entries by Philips and EM Marin I think it was. The far east is a wild card for me. I've estimated it's activity in this period as low on a dollar basis possibly breaking open towards the end. Going further forward they are likely to be very material; but, I see obstacles that I guess will take the better part of a year to move through. In europe by Dec 31 I estimate 4 fully declared entrants plus or minus 1 and in north america 11 plus or minus 2. Next year I'm adding NATO to the DOD and by Sep05 I expect a formalized healthcare mandate will have long been set with specific product implementations underway.

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