NEW POLL: BUSH'S POLL NUMBERS NOSEDIVE!!!!
As the presidential race heats up, the spread between the two campaigns narrows
Gerald Herbert / AP
In the fray: Kerry still lags behind the incumbent, whose lead has diminished
WEB EXCLUSIVE
By Brian Braiker
Newsweek
Updated: 3:46 p.m. ET Sept. 11, 2004
Sept. 11 - One week after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention in New York, the latest NEWSWEEK poll shows George W. Bush’s double-digit “bounce” narrowing by to six points. Bush-Cheney had enjoyed an 11-point lead over the Kerry-Edwards ticket coming out of their convention, but in the latest poll, taken on the eve of the third anniversary of the September 11 attacks, the incumbents now lead 49 percent to 43 percent in a three-way race.
With 2 percent of the vote going to Ralph Nader, removing the independent candidate from the ticket has little effect on the spread, with 50 percent of the vote for Bush and 45 percent Kerry. (The sudden shift in the NEWSWEEK poll from last week’s results is dramatic but not unprecedented-in 1988 Michael Dukakis’s 17-point lead dropped to 10 points within two weeks.)
The poll also found that as convention buzz subsides, Bush’s approval ratings have again dropped below the 50 percent mark (48 percent approve, 44 percent disapprove). Bush’s favorability ratings have also slipped slightly, to 52 percent favorable (and 44 percent unfavorable) from 55 percent favorable (40 percent unfavorable). Kerry’s favorability ratings, which had dropped to 45 percent (and 46 percent unfavorable) during the Republican convention have climbed slightly to 48 percent and 44 percent, but still remain lower than they were before the GOP gathering.
Still, regardless of whom they support, a majority of registered voters (60 percent) believe that the president will be reelected in November. Bush has maintained the high personal marks he won at the convention: two-thirds of all voters see him as a strong leader (62 percent), forthright (66 percent) and personally likeable (67 percent).
Meanwhile, as both campaigns ratcheted up the intensity, the election is widely viewed (by 79 percent of all voters) as too negative. And 53 percent of voters say they are dissatisfied with the “way things are going” in the United States (39 percent are satisfied).
One of the bigger election stories of the past week centered on new doubts about whether the president had fulfilled his military obligations during Vietnam. With recent reports suggesting that as a younger man Bush did not meet his stateside National Guard obligations during the Vietnam war, voters are split on what they believe-42 percent of all voters say they now have serious doubts, the same number says he did his duty. The president’s personal ratings on honesty took a hit this week, with 55 percent saying they view Bush as “honest and ethical” and 40 percent saying they do not. Seven days ago, those numbers were 62 percent and 33 percent.
Kerry, who has had his own service impugned by a group of swift boat veterans, has seen his four months in Vietnam become a net positive among independent, or swing, voters: Sixteen percent of them say his service makes them more likely to vote for him, 12 percent it makes them less likely. Bush’s military record leaves 19 percent of independent voters saying they are less likely to vote for him (with 4 percent more likely).
But Kerry has also seen his negative ratings increase on personal issues. In early July, 55 percent said the senator from Massachusetts had “strong leadership qualities,” vs. 27 percent who said he did not. Today the number of voters who give Kerry high marks on leadership has slipped to 50 percent with almost as many (40 percent) seeing him as not a strong leader. Voters are also divided on whether they would trust him to make the right decisions in an international crisis (46 percent yes, 45 percent no) even though three quarters of all voters (74 percent) see Kerry as being “intelligent and well informed.” (Six in ten, 59 percent, would describe the president that way.)
Voters’ rankings of key issues of concern has not shifted significantly since the conclusion of the Republican convention in New York. Although terrorism is the top concern for 25 percent of all voters, domestic issues dominate the list when it comes to deciding who gets the vote, starting with the economy (21 percent), followed by health care (14 percent), jobs and foreign competition (9 percent), education (7 percent) and taxes (2 percent). Fifteen percent consider the war in Iraq the most pressing issue. As a candidate, Kerry is more competitive than Bush on these domestic issues, with voters preferring him to Bush on health care (50 percent versus 40 percent) and jobs (47 percent to 42 percent). Bush has the edge on fighting terror (58 percent to Kerry’s 34) and Iraq (54 percent to 39). The two are neck and neck on education and the economy.
More than one-third of all voters (38 percent) agreed with Vice President Dick Cheney when he asserted this week that electing Kerry as president would be “the wrong choice” because “the danger is that we’ll get hit again.” Those numbers break down along party lines with 71 percent of Republicans believing the United States would be more vulnerable under a Kerry administration, while 43 percent of Democrats, a plurality, think the country would be less vulnerable. Meanwhile, a vast majority of the electorate (79 percent) think one or both of the campaigns have been too negative.
For the NEWSWEEK poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,003 registered voters aged 18 and older Sept. 9 and Sept. 10 by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points. |
