America On-Line: will it survive ...? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?

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To: steve lipson who wrote (4600)	8/26/1997 11:48:00 AM
From: Brent D. Beal	of 13594

"relatively limited new variable cost outlays" That is an interesting comment given was we've been able to observe in the high tech world over that last decade. I think it's more plausible these costs remain fairly constant as AOL is forced to constantly keep up with new technology, not decline. As for the hockey stick argument, I agree and your analysis is at least intelligent. But you've made my point for me. There is no guarantee that the curve at the end of the stick is ever going to be realized, as you point out. The stock price currently does not adequately reflect this risk, which, given the internet, other online services (MSN) and other connection technologies, is very real. Last year AOL was supposed to make money and it didn't. This year AOL was supposed to make money and it isn't. They were supposed to make money next year, but apparently, there is growing uncertainty about that. Now we're supposed to be looking at '99. And this stock is selling at $67???????????? At this point this stock is the best example of "greater fool" stock, possibly with the exception of VIAS, that I can think of.

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