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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: LindyBill who started this subject9/12/2004 10:39:34 PM
From: Brumar89  Read Replies (1) of 793885
 
Questions about Senate races: The Senate now has 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats and 1 independent. 34 Senate seats are up for election - 19 Democrat and 15 Republican. I assume most incumbents will be re-elected. But there are 8 Senate races that are open races - the incumbent isn't running:

3 Republicans leaving:

Campbell - CO:
Nickles - OK
Fitzgerald - IL

5 Democrats leaving - all Southerners (kind of striking):

Graham - FL
Miller - GA
Breaux - LA
Hollings - SC
Edwards - NC

I'm wondering whether anyone here have informed opinions about who is likely to win any of these races?

I see in CO, its Dem. Ken Salazar (CO Atty Gen) v Pete Coors. I tend to assume someone who has won elections before in the state for other offices would have an advantage.

In IL, its Obama vs Keyes. I presume Obama will win, mainly because Keyes is an outsider.

In OK, its two names I know nothing about, both now Representatives.

The Southern open Senate races are:

NC- Erskine Bowles v Richard Burr (a Representative)

SC - Inez Tenenbaum (lawyer) v Jim DeMint (a Representative)

GA - Denise Majette (black Representative) v Johnny Isakson (also a Representative)

FL - Betty Castor v Mel Martinez (neither one a current office holder, I think)

LA - 4 Democrats (?) v David Vitter (a Representative).

Anyway, I'm thinking the Democrats have a likely chance to pick up Senate seats in IL and CO, don't know about OK. But those 5 Southern Democrats leaving office - I'm betting most of them will turn over to the Republicans allowing the Republicans to continue to control the Senate, maybe even grow their majority there. Are my assumptions wrong?
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