Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (53260)	9/13/2004 12:39:35 AM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (2) of 74559

>>As for a time frame, I have none, other than to speculate that I think it will be much further out than 2009, maybe in the 2015 - 2020 range<< Kerry, it's possible to pinpoint the potential onset of a severe Chinese Depression to 2020. This probable Chinese Depression was baked in the cake 25 years ago by the CCP's 1979 introduction of the one-child policy. axe.acadiau.ca You can see how successful this policy was by the enormous reduction in 5 to 14 year olds in China's population pyramid circa 1990. Clearly the one-child policy was most successful in its early years. census.gov This policy, btw, followed 20 years of what may be somewhat indelicately described as the Great Helmsman's "f*$k for China" program, which resulted in an increase in China's population of approximately 200 million people in the 1950s and 1960s - ah, the many and varied pleasures of totalitarianism. The net result of all this reproductive interference is a hugely distorted population pyramid. Anyway, project the yawning demographic chasm forward to 2020 and this is what you get: census.gov You can see that the leading edge of the demographic chasm is now arriving at age 45 (suggesting btw that the one-child dictum was informally applied before 1979, when it became explicit CCP policy). The economic consequences of this will likely prove devastating to the Chinese economy. The US, for entirely different reasons, will be experiencing a similar phenomenon beginning in approximately 2012. census.gov Imagine the possibilities - a severe US Depression from 2012 to ~2023, followed by a catastrophic China Depression from ~2020 to ~2030. Jay will be ecstatic.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next