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Technology Stocks : Dialogic ready to soar, funds buying
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To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (423)8/26/1997 11:52:00 AM
From: David R   of 674
 
Jay, I think that this would be much like trying (10 years ago) to estimate the impact of the PC on mainframes (and mini's to a certain extent). The Mini computer market is now divided between PC's and work stations (the sum of the new parts is much greater than the old market). The mainframe, much to the prophets of doom predictions, is still going strong.

Likewise, I see CTI based switches quickly moving into the low-end (as they already are), and, over time, begining to get in the middle as well. There will always be a place for the big iron switches that CTI will never fill.

In terms of attrition, I am not sure how much share will be lost. My best guess would use the mini computer model. CTI is making inroads from the bottom. Dm3 will allow vendors to start moving into the mid-level switch market offering premium services at a much reduced cost. Because of the value-add,, I expect the market to grow substatially, so that only the PBX vendors who don't "get it" will really be in trouble. I expect that the more savvy PBX makers are already at work on solid CTI platforms (unPBX's). Mitel, a name in PBX's is already announcing an UnPBX CTI solution. Check out the following link:

www1.mitel.com

Of course Mitel is an MVIP company (one of the founders) so they would not likely be using Dialogic boards. But expect other PBX vendors to follow suit. I expect relative market share to stay about the same (i.e. Dialogic will get lots of new revenues, but overall market share will remain about the same). NMSS and BRKT are the others to watch. Rhetorex is by-and-large dead. Lucent now owns Rhetorex courtesy of the Octel purchase. I expect Lucent to stay with Dialogic.
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