The HSDPA Reality ...
<< So even if NOK/EMP/NEC gets a chipset out for sampling by end of this year. >>
Nokia doesn't sample chipsets. They are not a merchant chipmaker, and before they deliver HSDPA handsets they will deliver base station cards with HSDPA modem chips. They probably have prototype handsets in their own networks division labs now, and in Ericsson's and Siemens' IOT labs now.
EMP who is a merchant chip maker, will probably sample 1st to Sony Ericsson and perhaps Sharp, but again, Ericsson networks will deliver Base station cards with HSDPA modem chips, and they probably. They probably have prototype handsets in their own networks division labs now, and in Nokia's, and Siemen's,IOT labs now.
Remember this, Ericsson and Nokia are delivering about 50% of the network gear in the world. It puts them in an enviable position competitively.
Chipsets from Motorola/Freescale who is a merchant chip maker, will probably 1st appear in Motorola handsets.
NEC/Agere, hard to say, but I do expect NECEL to be early on in trialing in Japan.
Most assuredly TI has prototype HSDPA base station modems populating labs right now.
Qualcomm may do the "trial handset" trick again, but they are dependent on their handset (and more likely modem card) manufacturers to incorporate their chipsets in UE. Their value chain is currently less involved in HSDPA maturation than Ericsson, Nokia, Motorola, NEC, Matsushita, Fujitsu, and Mitsubishi, so the priorities of that value chain will dictate their development based around Qualcomm chipsets.
<< You still have the typical 9 months from then before commercial production of the chipset. >>
Probably more. Nine months has not been 'typical' for Qualcomm WCDMA chipsets. You can backtrack all 3 generations of Qualcomm chipsets, on this, and factor in the fact that moving from an MSM6200 to an MSM6250 is a shorter evolutionary step then moving from an MSM6250 to a commercial grade MSM6275.
In order to take advantage of the data transmission capabilities of HSDPA, on the short haul an integrated ARM9 and DSP powered baseband/applications processor isn't going to hack it so look for an ARM7/ARM11 C/A processor combo in the early going and bear in mind that Qualcomm won't be sampling an ARM11 multi-engine chipset till Q1 2005 at earliest, and wont be sampling a 3GSM UMTS WCDMA/HSDPA chipset till Q4 2005 earliest.
There is a big edge here to TI, and to their value chain which has been developing the software platform that resides between the hardware level and the keyboard/display around the rapidly evolving OMAP platform. This particularly applies to the 3 leading Japanese vendors who also have mastered FOMA's specific software requirements.
<< That puts HSPDA out to 4th Qtr of 05. Isn't that a more realistic timeframe for Cingular. >>
Realistically, HSDPA is further out than that for anybody, commercial handset wise, and probably even further out for Cingular, although they could possibly be doing commercial trialing by that time, but more realistically will be trialing in lab. What Cingular needs now, is delivery of 3GPP R5 compliant network hardware (base stations, cards, IMS subsystem) that at least is software upgradable to HSDPA, and their RFP probably focuses on that.
Best,
- Eric - |
