Bush Making Gains in Battleground States
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By TOM RAUM, Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON - President Bush has been
solidifying his gains in states that once were dead heats, forcing both
parties' campaigns to alter strategies as the electoral battleground
shrinks. Democrat John Kerry is struggling to stay
afloat in some hotly contested states, including Missouri, Wisconsin and
Ohio, where polls show Bush pulling ahead.
Ohio, with 20 electoral votes, went for Bush
in 2000 but economic issues this year
should be helping Kerry, Democrats
suggest. Unemployment in Ohio stands at
5.9 percent, above the national average of
5.4 percent.
"The big problem that Senator Kerry has
right now is that he has not communicated
to the people of Ohio exactly what his plans
are," said Paul Tipps, a Columbus lobbyist
and former state Democratic party chair.
"This state is very much John Kerry's to win.
But he hasn't done it yet."
Bush campaigned in Colorado on Tuesday
as part of his plan to put that state,
Missouri, Arizona, North Carolina, Arkansas
and Louisiana out of contention before Kerry
can increase his campaign effort in these
second-tier battlegrounds - all won by
Bush four years ago.
Reflecting the changing dynamic, Bush's
campaign this week increased its
advertising in four states won in 2000 by
Democrat Al Gore (news - web sites):
Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Mexico and Michigan. Meanwhile, it was
cutting back on ads in states that appear to be moving out of play:
Arizona and Missouri, which are moving Bush's way, and Maine and
Washington, which slightly favor Kerry.
Under pressure, Kerry moved up plans to advertise in Michigan, Oregon,
Maine and Minnesota.
Meanwhile, a new CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll, conducted Sept. 10-13,
showed Tuesday that Kerry had extended a lead over Bush in Michigan,
a Democratic stronghold, to 6 percentage points. However, strategists in
both parties said privately they didn't believe Kerry's lead there was that
large.
With the election less than two months off, both parties are focusing
most of their attention and advertising dollars on 10 closely contested
states: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa,
Nevada, New Mexico, West Virginia and New Hampshire.
Post GOP convention polls show the race to be a dead heat in
Pennsylvania, with 21 electoral votes, a state carried by Gore in 2000.
The race in Florida, which decided the 2000 contest when it was put in
Bush's column by a Supreme Court ruling, was even in polls conducted
just before the convention.
Florida presents the biggest prize of the battleground states, with 27
electoral votes.
In a state battered by two hurricanes and with another on the way, "there
is a lot of uncertainty" on how the storms will affect the election, said Al
Cardenas, a former state Republican chairman.
Still, Cardenas said Florida is a "microcosm of the country" and he sees
the presidential race in his state, where President Bush's brother Jeb is
governor, as "a percentage point or two from what the national polls are
showing," which is a slight Bush lead.
David Beattie, a Democratic pollster in Florida, said many Florida
television stations stuck with live coverage of Hurricane Frances and
thus many Florida viewers did not even see the Republican convention.
"For the last three weeks, the state has been frozen in place politically,"
Beattie said, and is likely to remain nearly as closely divided as it was
four years ago.
Beattie predicted that battleground states now moving toward Bush
would tighten up again as the Nov. 2 election draws nearer. But for now,
Kerry's supporters are watching earlier advantages slip away.
Kerry advisers said Tuesday that their problems in Wisconsin,
Minnesota and other former Gore states seem to be partly a result of
lower-than-expected support from blacks. Blacks overwhelmingly favor
Kerry, but not by as much as he needs.
Aides said Kerry has stepped up his speeches to black groups,
including to the Congressional Black Caucus (news - web sites) last
weekend.
In battleground Pennsylvania, state polls that show
an even race between Bush and Kerry may be
misleading and overstate Bush's support, said Dan
Fee, a Democratic consultant in the state.
Even though it's clearly a tight race, "I don't see lot of
people jumping on Bush's bandwagon" and polls do
not accurately reflect a surge in registration of new
voters who are more likely to vote for Kerry than
Bush, Fee said.
"We are more organized than I have ever seen," Fee
added.
But Pennsylvania state Sen. Jane Earll, from Erie in
the northwestern part of the state, says the
Bush-Cheney organization is far more organized this
time in her state than it was four years ago.
"There are more campaign people around, more
coordination, more ground troops and grass-roots
organizing," she said.
Still, she said, Bush starts "with a registration
deficit" in a state where Democrats still comfortably
outnumber Republicans.
In New Hampshire, where the opposite is true and
Republicans outnumber Democrats, the race
remains extremely close and is likely "to remain that
way from now to November," said longtime
Democratic strategist Dayton Duncan.
"Bush's main advantage is that it's a Republican
state. Kerry's advantages are that he's a neighbor
and he did well in New Hampshire's primary. But for
now, I'd say it's up for grabs."
___
Associated Press writers Ron Fournier and Liz Sidoti
contributed to this report. |
