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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: jttmab who wrote (145667)9/15/2004 2:21:36 PM
From: michael97123  Read Replies (2) of 281500
 
"I agree with the Kurdish north; I hesitate to agree on the Shiaa areas. I think the insurgency has spread well beyond the triangle. But the level of insurgency is germane, and I'm not prepared to argue that."

Shiaa insurgency does exist witness al sadr but it has different goals. Sunni insurgency is a mixture of varietys of islamist terrorism, baathism and nationalism. The Shiaa wants the US off their back and a right to run their own affairs under an iran like, lighter mullocracy. Sistani and al sadr somehow coexist in this scenario. If we go three state there will be problems in bagdad, kirkuk as emboldened kurds move south and shiaa move to take control of a city that has a majority shiaa population. Of course iran will be helping the shiaa and they probably will prevail if civil war type fighting erupts on border areas. Populations may move from one zone to the other.
Sunnis get their civil war and only God knows if anything good comes from that. Triangle looks on a map like a rump state that has little chance of success. Sunnis may turn out to be next gens shia in iraq if shias and kurds eventually conquer and divide. And then there are bordering states like syria that may expand into western desert regions. mike
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