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Technology Stocks : CDMA, Qualcomm, [Hong Kong, Korea, LA] THE MARKET TEST!
QCOM 170.58-0.2%12:01 PM EST
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To: Michael Allard who wrote (349)8/3/1996 7:09:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn   of 1819
 
Michael, Jim Lurgio is part of the IDC cult, but I'm glad to have him here. Rational competitors and customers are great for keeping everyone on their toes and preventing self-adulation.

I haven't followed IDC much at all other than to know they have some broader band CDMA, have sued Qualcomm over patents and got paid off. They also seem to be quite successfully in business and forming some valuable associations [Siemens etc]. So I wouldn't be too dismissive of them.

Europe is going to be a bit of a battleground. I suspect Philips is going to be CDMA IS95 and Siemens BCDMA, both fighting it out with GSM. USA seems likely to go pretty quickly straight to IS95 CDMA with little impact from TDMA/GSM. Asia is doing both, but with CDMA getting well positioned. So BCDMA and Interdigital have got roles to play by the look of it and might well be the main competition keeping the IS95 crowd honest.

Yes, Europe is the 5%, but if you throw in some economic facts of life, like purchasing power, they get up to 20%. At least for the next few years. But the transitions are going to be quite quick and wealth changes and CDMA/TDMA/analog ratios could change fast.

But Qualcomm seems to me to have a far bigger stack of things right than all the other parties. So they have my bet by far. As you say, the rest of this year is going to be the real onslaught by CDMA.

Maurice
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