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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: pezz who wrote (52956)9/16/2004 11:39:22 AM
From: TobagoJack   of 74559
 
Hello Pezz, Today’s Report :

I purchased a tranche of Maurel et Prom maureletprom.com (see my exhaustive DD here reuters.co.uk ) at Euro 115.6/share finance.yahoo.com

My cyber pal Anton in London told me that the Maurel et Prom beast is a, and I quote Anton’s e-mail:

“Maurel et Prom is a French exploration & production company looking for oil in the French Congo, not to be confused with the Belgian Congo, which has been a civil war area. They have found 280 billion barrels there. The value of the company is about US$1.2bn. So you are basically paying just over $4 a barrel for the oil already discovered. And the chances of finding more oil are quite high. In addition, the tax rate is low in terms of international comparisons. Yet company trades on about 8 times 2005 earnings.”

… to which I instantly responded, talking to the thin air around me, “say no more, I am in”; but Anton’s e-mail kept on going, and I quote again:

“Energy sector is a good bet I think most on BBR thread agree in that the supply side is very limited, so prices are going to stay high unless there is a hard landing in the global economy. And even if we do move into a global economic recession, i think there are worse places to be than the energy sector (end of world as we know it notwithstanding).”

… and I thought, yup, this is in fact the case, TeoTwawKi notwithstanding or sitting down or flat on its broken back. Anton’s e-mail ignored my fevered thoughts and kept on going, and I quote once more,

“Place to invest is not necessarily with the majors. Their costs go up too - because they'll have to invest more in order to stay in production. So I think you need to invest in a small E&P company that's got lots of reserves, like Cairn Energy (+280% for me this year) used to be, or, oil services companies.

Something to think about anyway! I've also done well (no pun intended) with Burren Energy +129% this year for me operating in similarly exotic places such as Turkmenstan and Mauritania and Hardman Resources 160% also Mauritania.

Also been considering the very dull timber sector pointed out by Jeremy Grantham (considering Seattle-based Plum Creek Timber 8 million acres yield 4% and Rayonier 2.2 million acres yield 5%).”


To which I thought, yeah, Anton did give me the heads-up on a lot of his plays, all weird, along with the odd Irish Iraqi oil play, and more recently some Brazilian plays.

Also, he had reminded me that, and I quote yet again once more,

”I'm sure you recall a couple of stocks I recommended a year ago; Frontline and Golar. Golar you took quite a juicy swift profit on while sitting in plane awaiting take off to Bora Bora I believe. Frontline I think you already held if memory serves? Frontline has been very good of course:

finance.yahoo.com


Yes, Anton’s Golar idea was a good one. His Frontline was also good, but I had been alerted to it earlier by … let me see, yes, that idea belonged to Mac down the street. Then there were other brilliant ideas, like Australia Wheat Board by Bill, Canadian Dollars by DAK, Canadian Royalties by KastelCo/Spotted.Cat, CanRoys by Energyplay, Lumacom of Australia by Aussie buddy, HubPower of Pakistan by British friend living in Pakistan, Softbank of Japan by Peter, Annaly by Mac again, each idea a good one in their time, everyone a gem.

Some good ideas were from Natural Resources thread, and other ideas that were good were from a guy named Pezz.

Back to Anton, I do have a full list of all of Anton’s soldiers, but I will refrain from revealing what I do not have permission to reveal.

I really appreciate folks who share their best ideas, and am thankful that some people’s best ideas work out more often than not.

I have got folks sharing ideas on SI, via e-mail, and via MS Messenger service. I feel as if my PC has multiple personalities residing within, tempting me with ideas whenever I sign on each day.

Thank you all, and all those I failed to name.

Chugs, Jay
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