Polls Show Nov. 2 Race Even as Bush Bounce Fades
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Thu Sep 16, 2004 04:45 PM ET
By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Two national polls on Thursday showed the race between President Bush and Democrat John Kerry deadlocked again as Bush's convention bounce faded, although the president has made headway in key swing states.
In polls certain to buoy the spirits of anxious Democrats, the Pew Research Center and Harris Interactive found equal levels of support for the two White House contenders as Kerry's support rebounded from the withering attacks he faced at the Republican convention that ended on Sept. 2.
The new surveys followed two other polls in recent days, by Investor's Business Daily and a Democratic group, Democracy Corps, that found the race essentially even again, just as it was for months before the two parties held their nominating conventions.
"Some of the negative attacks against Kerry are wearing off and he has stayed in the game because people are discontent with Bush on Iraq and the economy," said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for People and the Press.
"Unfortunately for Kerry, he's been unable to tap into that unhappiness, especially on Iraq," Kohut said, noting Bush still beats Kerry 52-40 percent on who was favored to lead the war in Iraq. "It's a mixed picture for Kerry, but that's better than what he had a few days ago."
Several other recent polls have shown Bush, who bounced to a double-digit lead in two polls after the Republican convention, with a four- to seven-point lead over Kerry.
A flurry of new state polls, meanwhile, showed Bush moving ahead in key states like Florida and Nevada and challenging Kerry in Democratic strongholds like New Jersey.
VOTERS UNSETTLED
"We went through a period for months where there was no air between these candidates in the polls, they were all the same, and now it's the opposite," Kohut said. "I think it shows the voters are unsettled, their thoughts about Kerry are unsettled and they are going back and forth."
A new National Annenberg Election Survey earlier this week found Bush gaining ground as a leader and in the war on terror, but his approval ratings among undecided and "persuadable" voters dropped below levels from before the Republican convention.
Kerry has sharpened his message and gone on the offensive against Bush this week on Iraq and the economy, challenging the president's credibility and his leadership on both issues.
The changes in his campaign came as he faced a chorus of grumbling and complaints from fellow Democrats about his failure to develop a coherent message and respond quickly to attacks on his military record in Vietnam.
"I feel very comfortable with where we are," Democratic Party boss Terry McAuliffe said. "As it relates to the battleground states, I think we're in a very good position."
A Bush campaign spokesman declined immediate comment.
The Pew survey sampled voters in two waves. The first poll of likely voters, taken Sept. 8-10, found Bush with a 16-point lead. The second poll on Sept. 11-14, which had a 3.5 percentage point margin of error, found Bush with a statistically insignificant one-point lead. Among registered voters, it was deadlocked.
The Harris poll, which was conducted Sept. 9-13 and had a 3 point margin of error, found Kerry with a one-point lead. A Harris poll in June gave Bush a 10 percentage point lead.
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