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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (8131)	8/26/1997 2:43:00 PM
From: Brian Fukuba	of 50167

Economic Calander: LJR Redbook 0.8% Week of August 25 - August 29 Forecast/ Date Time Release Period Actual Market Previous 8/25 Cahners BPI Aug 64.7 N/A 66.2 8/26 08:30 Durable Orders Jul -0.6% -0.5% 2.4% 8/26 09:00 Mitsubishi Index 08/23 0.2% N/A 0.4% 8/26 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jul 4.24M 4.20 4.14M 8/26 10:00 Consumer Confidence Aug 129.1 126.0 126.5 8/26 14:55 LJR Redbook 08/23 0.8% N/A 0.7% 8/28 08:30 GDP (Prelim) Q2 3.2% 3.5% 2.2% 8/28 08:30 GDP Chain Deflator Q2 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 8/28 08:30 Initial Claims 08/23 332K 330K 337K 8/28 08:30 APICS Index Aug N/A N/A 53.0 8/28 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jul 89 88 88 8/28 16:30 M2 08/18 $9.0B $7.5B $5.0B 8/29 08:30 Personal Income Jul 0.2% 0.3% 0.6% 8/29 08:30 PCE Jul 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 8/29 10:00 Chicago PMI Aug 58.5% 59.5% 60.6% 8/29 10:00 New Home Sales Jul 840K 820K 819K 8/29 10:00 Michigan Sentiment Aug 103.0 103.5 102.8 8/29 15:00 Farm Prices Aug N/A N/A -0.9% Mitsubishi Review The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi/Schroders sales index posted a 0.2% increase during the August 23 week. It has declined only twice in twelve weeks. In fact, the BTM/S index has shown considerable improvement since a trough during the May 24 week, when it posted only a 1.1% year-on-year increase (it has turned in an average 3.2% increase since). It rose 4.8% in June and an even bigger 5.7% in July, and it is likely to reveal a 5.5% August increase. Redbook Preview The Johnson Redbook sales index is on track to rise 0.7% in August (data through the 16th). Recall that Redbook posted a 0.3% increase in July following a 1.7% gain in June. We expect the Aug 23 report to reveal a cumulative 0.8% increase for the month. It is still early in the game to talk about the August retail sales report, but this figure does suggest a decent gain at worst. A Note on Chain-Store Sales Indices Reference the graph above and note that over the long run the Johnson Redbook sales index tracks the general merchandise portion of the retail sales report reasonably well (the general merchandise category accounts for roughly 13% of all retail sales). We have not been able to discover a similar usefulness in the Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi/Schroders sales index, which generally proves quite volatile from week to week. Note: time reporting is Eastern time as captured from briefing.com. Will try to post #'s and analysis as soon as they are released. *reported #'s bri

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