Yes, I saw that NJ poll also. It's just one poll, it does not make a trend. There was also a poll back in March that showed Bush ahead slightly in NJ. If we get 3 or 4 polls showing Bush ahead in NJ, I'll take notice. One thing of note is that the poll was taken just after the 9/11 ceremonies. Perhaps that affected the outcome?!? In any case, I expect Kerry to win NJ by at least 5% in November.
On the flip side, recent polling shows Kerry is very close in states like CO, NV, and big MO?
I'll tell you what I think is happening. There are, of course, a lot of cross currents in elections. But, I'm definitely seeing a current where states that are close to New York and were affected by 9/11 are making it a lot closer for Bush. While, states that our far removed from 9/11 are apparently concerned with other issues such as jobs, guns, Yucca Mountain or the environment and hurting Bush. I was out in Hawaii shortly after 9/11, hardly anyone cared about it out there.
Frankly, I can't believe three recent polls from CO show Bush and Kerry pretty much tied with Nader taking 3%. It's going to be fun to see how things play out on election night. |
