Bush Seen Vulnerable to Kerry Among Independent Voters
Sat Sep 18, 2004 10:51 AM ET
By David Morgan
KENNEBUNKPORT, Maine (Reuters) - President Bush, who holds a sizable lead in some polls, still appears to be vulnerable to Democrat John Kerry among independent voters whose shifting loyalties could determine the winner of the November election, pollsters say.
Polling results from the Pew Research Center, the Christian Science Monitor and the Gallup Organization suggest independent voters are favoring Kerry as concerns about the economy and Iraq re-emerge as top campaign issues, despite a surge of support for Bush following the Republican convention.
"At this point, it seems that Kerry's doing slightly better than Bush among independents," said Jeff Jones, managing editor of the Gallup Poll.
A new Gallup survey released on Friday showed the Democratic presidential nominee leading Bush 50-43 percent among independents, even though the Republican incumbent held a 13-percentage-point lead among voters overall.
A Monitor/TIPP survey, one of several that showed the national presidential race returning to a dead heat, suggested a 10-point Kerry lead among independents.
The Gallup and Monitor polls both had 4 percent margins of error.
A New York Times/CBS poll released on Saturday found that among likely voters, Bush led Kerry 51 percent to 42 percent. The poll, however, did not break out the views of independents.
Independents could prove vital in the Nov. 2 election, which many expect to be as close as the 2000 race that ended in a legal battle before the U.S. Supreme Court.
"They're split, and whoever can attract most of them will win," said American Research Group President Dick Bennett, who has watched independent loyalties shift several times this year.
Independents, who make up about 29 percent of the national electorate according to some polls, appear more interested than usual in the current campaign, leading some analysts to expect a high turnout that could favor Kerry.
"Every measure we take of engagement is up from four years ago, and up from eight years ago," noted Pew Research Center Editor Carroll Doherty.
HIGH VOTER TURNOUT EXPECTED
With registered Republican and Democratic voters largely holed up in their respective partisan camps, the Bush and Kerry campaigns have launched vigorous get-out-the-vote initiatives.
Among the targets are independents, party crossovers, and an estimated 92 million voters who sat out the 2000 election, including 4 million evangelical Christians who could be expected to back Bush.
Curtis Gans, director of nonpartisan Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, said 2004 election turnout is likely to be the largest in 12 years and could be the biggest since the 1960s.
"One thing that's concrete is that voter interest is substantially higher this year than at any time in 2000," said Gans, who believes higher turnout would favor Kerry.
"This is a highly emotional election in which George Bush is a lighting rod," he added. "The important question for Bush is whether he can maintain a sizable lead so the turnout factors don't hurt him."
Doherty said a shift toward Massachusetts Sen. Kerry among independent voters was largely responsible for paring a 12-percentage-point Bush lead early this month to just a one-percent, 47-46 percent edge for the president in a Pew poll released this week.
Underlying the switch were stubbornly high disapproval ratings for Bush on the issues of Iraq and the economy.
Republicans are unwilling to concede the independent vote to Kerry, however, and most analysts warn that the mercurial nature of independent voters makes their behavior hard to predict - including whether they will actually vote.
Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway predicted independent voters would ultimately favor Bush, saying most opposed to the president had already thrown their support behind Kerry.
"For some reason, they were sitting on the fence," she said. "But that really has changed in the last few weeks. You find many of the new Bush voters actually supported him in 2000 and were not sold on John Kerry." |
