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Technology Stocks : Force Protection Inc (FRCP )
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To: Tadsamillionaire who wrote (4)9/20/2004 11:00:15 PM
From: Larry Brew   of 10
 
Tim, Me again. I want to toss some numbers around with what I see as a worst case scenario. By Jan 1st 05 there should be 14 assembly lines up and running. It's my impression that 2 a month will be added into next year. Each line 2 vehicles / month. Lets go with 14 lines. When I asked Watts about future contracts he obviously couldn't disclose discussions FRCP is having with the government. He replied: "Let's say there's a lot of activity." I can not imagine FRCP is adding lines without future contracts in the picture. 2 vehicles/month/line/yr is 336 vehicles for 2005 worst case IMO. Buffalos over $600k and Cougars over $300k. Lions expected to be a small business. I asked if I wanted one. He said about $225k. It's a vehicle one may expect a celebrity or executive to own. Not me, I was only curious as it looked street legal.
Back to numbers. Let's average the two. $450k each. Watts does expect the Cougar business to be large. $450k x 336/yr and 151200k/yr. 151.2 mil. Do a modest profit margin of 15% after expenses, and we have 22,680,000. Dilution won't be filled until Dec. 2006, but say it is in 2005. All 300 million shares. I get .0756. Give it a PE of 20 and $1.51 per share. For me this is a conservative rationalization. Opinion or different view? Larry
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