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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: mishedlo who wrote (18802)9/21/2004 4:31:23 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
Moving away from this OT discussion of Israel, take note:

Forget about a recession (at least as commonly defined) now. A penetration (even if brief) through 4.00% ten year (lead by Asian CBs trying to prevent a USD collapse) is going to do nothing but set off another wave of refi and consumer borrowing for XMAS, balloon the trade imbalance towards $200 billion a quarter, build another round of unneeded spec housing, and cause even more maladjustments and inflation. Looks like the next commodity run is being green lighted by the irresponsible Asians and Fed, lead by energy and metals. The Asians are going to be pushed to the wall on "vendor financing" our goods and energy purchases. The commercials are near record long the depressed grains, so it ought to join the fray as well. After the summer hiatus, watch for a renewed round of Purchasing.com pricing increases on the thread. This run will have a big speculative element as the funds (over $100 billion now in managed commodity funds) have largely gotten out during the MoP talk phase. This time they really can blame speculators (in reality flucht in die sachwerte: flight to real goods, crack-up boom behavior) for some of this price move. It won't be your cold freezing ice that will end this ridiculous economic cycle, it will be hot fire.
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