The Zogby folks made an interesting point the other day, that many pollsters are not reaching young people because they are only making phone calls, and most folks with cellphones can't be found in the phone book lists. That rings true. All of the under-30 folks I know have cellphones but not "wired" phones, at home anyway.
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Wall St Journal Poll: Bush lead narrows
By JOHN HARWOOD
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
September 22, 2004 6:58 p.m.
WASHINGTON -- President Bush retains a slight lead over Sen. John Kerry on the strength of above-average support among women voters, according to a new Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll.
The poll shows that the "bounce" from Mr. Bush's successful convention three weeks ago has faded, leaving the Republican incumbent with a slim 48% to 45% lead over his Democratic challenger. That's nearly identical to the 47% to 45% lead Mr. Bush enjoyed immediately before his convention.
The telephone poll of 1,006 registered voters was conducted Sept. 17-19. It has a margin of error of three percentage points in either direction.
The most striking feature of Mr. Bush's support is his strength among women, a group he lost to Al Gore by a wide margin in 2000. While Mr. Bush holds a double-digit lead among men, he trails Mr. Kerry among women by just 49% to 45%.
The poll shows the electorate split into two dramatically different constituencies on the issues. Some 44% say that terrorism and values are most important, and Mr. Bush leads strongly among that group. An equivalent number say the economy and health care are most important, and they strongly favor Mr. Kerry. Men are slightly more likely to fall in the former group, women the latter.
Even as Mr. Bush remains in front, the poll shows a clear majority of voters signaling their displeasure with the direction of the president's administration. Some 58% say they would want major changes in a second term, while just 40% endorse the current course or minor modifications to it. Women are slightly stronger than men in their desire for change. |
