Well, there is no way to "prove" one way or the other whether or not Bush has learned the "lessons" you hope he has learned and some of us--including me--think he/his group haven't learned much of anything. We still have people like Kagan talking about spreading democracy (this time in Russia, of all places--see George Will's column on this here: msnbc.msn.com -- for once I agree wholeheartedly with Will), and we still have same of "freedom" rhetoric. But you're right--it may simply be an election ploy for him to repeat ad nauseum how much he believes in "freedom" and the spread of democracy. But smarter people than him have been trapped in their rhetoric before, and his followers are certainly for the most part hard core believers in this rhetoric.
Your list of "actions" don't really prove anything either:
"He ended sanctions against Libya." Why not, a nice propaganda coup for his admin, spinning Libya as a "success" story cowed by his firm resolution; if anything the spin they put on this will encourage them to do more military action.
"He failed to push for sanctions against Iran." --Well, why would he, he knew for one thing that his word in the international community is pretty worthless except insofar as he might use force, and no one would go for it right now--he doesn't want another diplomatic failure demonstrating that while he calls for people to do things, not too many people will follow.
"He failed to punish North Korea." How would he "punish" them? The nut in charge over there has demonstrated that he doesn't care about starving 25% of his people. And we're too tied down in Iraq to do much militarily. Besides he doesn't want to look completely like a war monger. He wants to look resolute and like someone who "only" does military actions when "forced" to.
"He didn't increase the size of the US military." Politically impossible right now. His people have said over and over again that they have enough troops. They aren't going back on that before an election. Maybe afterwards.
"He gave up on conquering Falloujah. He didn't have Sadr arrested at all costs." On both of these, he didn't want to have to kill too many more civilians, especially in a massive battle. 10 or 20 or even 50 Iraqi civilian deaths is "acceptable," especially if there aren't too many pictures and no one knows their names. If there is a wholesale batter, with hundreds or even thousands of deaths that might have resulted from an attack on Fallujah, that would be unacceptable to too many people.
All that said, I can't prove you're engaging in wishful thinking by believing that Bush will pull out after the election. I still think, though, that he will be trapped by his rhetoric and his fervent followers into remaining stuck there. But of course, personally, I hope we don't find that out, I hope we find out what a Kerry admin will do.
We'll all have to just wait and see who wins the election. |
