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Technology Stocks : CGRM Centigram

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To: David R who wrote (170)8/26/1997 7:58:00 PM
From: Red Dragon   of 333
 
Overall, not too bad. As you pointed out, they "beat" estimates by not losing as much money as analysts predicted! :-)

You are right, they are not nearly through with their stock repurchasing program. There is very, very solid support at the 9-11 dollar level, especially with the stock repurchase program. Downside risk seems very limited.

However, we continue to see little growth in the Customer Premise Equipment (CPE) marketplace overall, and it is reflected in our results during this quarter.''

This seems to be an unfortunate predicament faced by the entire voice mail industry. Most companies have already installed their VM systems - further revenue comes from servicing and upgrades. The growth phase is plateauing. CGRM does have some prominent CPE customers such as United Air and Fidelity, but there are very few companies left without any VM installed.

Growth must come from service providers and overseas - and it looks like CGRM is making inroads there.

It is encouraging that they have finally made progress with expense reductions. It looks like a lot of the reductions were masked and negated by a lot of one time charges. But these benefits will show up in subsequent quarters. I think this thread pointed out earlier that a modest 10% reduction in expenses could potentially result in over 100% improvement on the bottom line.

I'm not sure what will happen tomorrow. Those investors who like earnings momentum will continue to ignore CGRM. But it might catch people's attention as a company that "beat" estimates. Those that like value and turnarounds may look closer.
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