JGoren, I'm amazingly good at market timing and now is the hour. You are looking at lovely prices for Qualcomm Inc. Maybe hope for a little skoosh down in overall markets which would carry Qualcomm a little way with it, but with their new trading range officially declared a little while ago, these low prices at which people are quitting Qualcomm won't last long. I suspect the sellers are the super smart algorithm traders who ignore fundamentals and have modelled the overall markets and individual companies price movements using cunning software and fast computers.
Qualcomm is conveniently volatile with a relatively large daily trade of some $40 to $100 million per day. They like that. Ignore them.
This is Kasparov versus Deep Blue in the stock trading business. Deep Blue does fine with a restricted board, restricted rules, and tight timing. The world's stage is infinitely complex and they don't have a stranglehold on price movements yet. Maybe they beat 80% of people. Which makes them money, but Warren Buffet is still king of the heap and George Soros is famous too.
Count the revenue, count the CDMA cell sites. Check out progress in China, Japan, Korea, Singapore and elsewhere. Look how many people worldwide want and can afford cellphones at the prices which are now showing up. Omnitracs continues well. Think of the royalties. Apparently it is unfashionable to count those, but at 5% they will be very big time if CDMA gains even half the market. CDMA has the technology advantage over all other systems. Eudora has good prospects with negligible risks [I tried that giant virus IE4 and it gobbled up my computer then crashed!]. Motorola and others are having trouble getting their proprietary CDMA systems going. Qualcomm has done it so it can be done. The Q-phone is coming out [I hope - it IS late!]. ASICS roar ahead. The courts have slapped Motorola over QPhone trade dress moaning. Pager display complaints look dodgey too.
The flat few months in handsets have made people think it isn't going to happen and GSM is getting away on CDMA. Northern Telecom/Qualcomm partnership has sold heaps of infrastructure. NextWave Telecom is going to get a rebate on their frequency bids [as are others] and then they will be away laughing. With 1998 deregulation and lots of Korean cash, NextWave will be able to start buying big time.
Globalstar is looking great. CDMAOne is well supported. Nothing can go wrong can go wrong can go wrong can go wrong!!
Risk has been dwindling for Qualcomm and they are sitting pretty! Two years late, but all lined up and well underway.
Diana, that item you quoted shows just how much Qualcomm is making from ASICs which they have been selling in the millions. Even if everyone makes their own ASICs, which they won't, they still pay royalties to Qualcomm. The licence fees were paid in lump sums at the time of signing up which gave them the right to develop CDMA. Royalties keep on rolling.
Qualcomm's new trading range is $53 to $78. Maybe $83. This over the next 12 months. Quoth I!
Mqurice |
