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Strategies & Market Trends : Group Theories

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To: macavity who started this subject	9/24/2004 4:01:58 AM
From: macavity	of 1017

Summary (Stocks): Bullish: The August bottom was significantly bullishly divergent. Bearish: There is a lot to indicate that we may have just had an IT top. Quarterly Pivot Bars are declining and LT_Lagging indicators are Bearish to Neutral; we should therefore be wary at IT_overbought conditions. i) We were overbought on tech ii) IT Breadth Oscillators (%40D) are falling from o/bt > 80% We are now approaching good support levels [$NDX=1405]. We are getting to S/T oversold conditions in what is still an IT Bull trend. We therefore have conditions for a rally here and if ST_Leading indicators turn bullish I will resume a more bullish view. Thursday was a small range day (doji in tech) and we should expect either a continuation of this ST downmove or a reversal here. Not predicting just planning! If $NDX > 1415 after happy hour I will cut my $NDX short. If $SPX > 1314 I believe that we would have simply witnessed a ST pullback in an IT Bull trend and we will have a continuation of the August upmove. With still some time to month end I would not interpret any buying now as window dressing Reversal here : cut short go long Continuation : add to short Short NQ (wishing it were ES) -macavity

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